NBA games

GS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
127–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS15334336127
PHI22232336104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home PHI
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 23 21 10 1
Jonathan Kuminga S 29 18 6 5
Klay Thompson S 28 18 3 1
Lester Quinones 24 13 2 4
Stephen Curry S 25 9 3 1
Kevon Looney 17 9 9 2
Dario Saric 14 9 3 2
Cory Joseph 5 8 1 1
Moses Moody 19 8 2 3
Brandin Podziemski 25 6 5 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ricky Council IV 10 17 0 0
KJ Martin 29 15 5 2
Tobias Harris S 29 13 7 3
Patrick Beverley 23 13 3 5
Tyrese Maxey S 30 12 2 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 25 11 3 0
Jaden Springer S 23 8 4 1
Terquavion Smith 10 7 1 2
Paul Reed S 31 6 8 4
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul Reed · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Paul Reed makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
2 Stephen Curry GS
13%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
5 Klay Thompson GS
9%
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
7 Paul Reed PHI
9%
8 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
24%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS 24.3 6.9 3.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.3 3.3 5.7
3 Stephen Curry GS 22.3 4.6 5.8
4 Tobias Harris PHI 20.6 5.3 4.1
5 Klay Thompson GS 17.8 3.7 3.1
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.7 4.9 1.5
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.4 4.6 2.2
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.0 6.6 4.7
9 Patrick Beverley PHI 10.5 3.8 4.9
10 Draymond Green GS 10.1 7.1 6.4
11 Dario Saric GS 9.0 3.8 3.9
12 Moses Moody GS 8.4 2.3 0.9
13 Paul Reed PHI 7.2 6.1 1.1
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.1 4.8 0.7
15 Jaden Springer PHI 5.3 2.2 1.3
16 Lester Quinones GS 5.2 2.5 1.0
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.1 4.3 1.5
18 Mo Bamba PHI 5.1 5.5 0.8
19 KJ Martin PHI 5.0 2.0 1.1
20 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 4.7 1.5 1.3
21 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.5 0.9 1.0
22 Gui Santos GS 3.9 2.4 0.7
23 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.9 1.2 0.5
24 Cory Joseph GS 3.6 1.3 1.2
25 Kenneth Lofton Jr. PHI 2.9 1.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.