NBA games

TOR @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
123–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27273732123
CHA36243720117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHA
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 33 23 6 5
Scottie Barnes S 36 18 4 5
Immanuel Quickley S 31 18 3 4
Dennis Schroder 27 16 4 5
Gary Trent Jr. S 28 14 0 1
Bruce Brown 22 12 3 4
Jakob Poeltl S 33 12 12 2
Gradey Dick 15 6 1 2
Thaddeus Young 15 4 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 38 45 8 7
Brandon Miller S 41 20 4 1
Cody Martin S 28 19 5 8
Bryce McGowens 15 10 4 1
Nick Smith Jr. 13 9 0 1
P.J. Washington 31 6 5 1
Nick Richards S 28 5 6 1
Leaky Black S 23 3 3 3
Nate Mensah 6 0 1 0
Ish Smith 16 0 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cody Martin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Cody Martin makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
5 Nick Richards CHA
9%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
8 Cody Martin CHA
6%
9 Bruce Brown TOR
6%
10 Leaky Black CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
32%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 25.1 7.6 4.2
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.4 6.6 6.5
3 Brandon Miller CHA 23.4 4.6 3.4
4 RJ Barrett TOR 23.1 7.4 4.3
5 P.J. Washington CHA 19.0 5.6 2.9
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.4 3.8 6.5
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.3 10.0 2.9
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 13.3 2.9 1.5
9 Nick Richards CHA 12.8 9.8 1.4
10 Bruce Brown TOR 11.6 5.9 2.6
11 Dennis Schroder TOR 11.3 3.0 4.9
12 Cody Martin CHA 8.7 3.6 4.0
13 Thaddeus Young TOR 8.1 4.7 2.3
14 Jordan Nwora TOR 7.4 2.6 1.7
15 Gradey Dick TOR 7.0 2.9 1.8
16 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.1 1.4 1.6
17 Chris Boucher TOR 6.0 3.8 0.8
18 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.4 1.8 1.0
19 Ish Smith CHA 5.1 2.2 4.3
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.4 1.9 0.9
21 JT Thor CHA 3.9 2.3 0.8
22 Leaky Black CHA 3.8 2.3 1.1
23 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 3.4 1.5 0.5
24 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.3 1.9 0.9
25 James Bouknight CHA 3.2 0.9 0.8
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.7 1.5 0.7
27 Nate Mensah CHA 2.3 2.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.