NBA games

MIL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
106–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL23262433106
PHX22263135114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home PHX
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 34 10 6
Malik Beasley S 36 22 4 2
Pat Connaughton S 32 12 6 6
Cameron Payne 23 11 4 3
Jae Crowder 40 10 6 3
Robin Lopez S 18 6 1 0
Khris Middleton S 8 6 3 1
Bobby Portis 31 5 9 2
AJ Green 13 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 32 1 4
Kevin Durant S 39 28 10 1
Bradley Beal S 38 25 10 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 32 10 10 4
Grayson Allen S 34 8 3 3
Bol Bol 17 4 6 1
Eric Gordon 22 3 4 1
Drew Eubanks 16 2 5 0
Jordan Goodwin 0 2 0 0
Josh Okogie 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Beasley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Malik Beasley makes 27-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
11%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Malik Beasley MIL
10%
7 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
8 Bobby Portis MIL
8%
9 Jae Crowder MIL
8%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
23%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.2 11.3 9.0
2 Devin Booker PHX 29.3 4.6 6.4
3 Kevin Durant PHX 25.6 6.5 5.8
4 Bradley Beal PHX 20.7 4.7 6.1
5 Khris Middleton MIL 17.3 4.2 5.9
6 Bobby Portis MIL 12.5 6.4 1.4
7 Grayson Allen PHX 12.5 3.6 3.2
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.2 10.3 4.9
9 Eric Gordon PHX 10.8 2.8 2.2
10 Malik Beasley MIL 9.4 3.6 1.5
11 Jae Crowder MIL 6.2 2.4 1.3
12 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.9 4.5 1.3
13 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.6 2.2 1.2
14 Cameron Payne MIL 5.5 1.6 1.7
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.1 2.0 1.2
16 Bol Bol PHX 4.9 3.4 0.8
17 Josh Okogie PHX 4.9 3.3 1.1
18 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.8 2.4 0.9
19 AJ Green MIL 4.5 1.4 0.7
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.5 3.4 1.1
21 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.4 2.9 0.7
22 Nassir Little PHX 3.1 1.5 0.6
23 Jordan Goodwin PHX 2.9 1.3 0.7
24 Yuta Watanabe PHX 2.8 1.3 0.6
25 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.7 2.4 0.3
26 Robin Lopez MIL 2.4 1.0 0.6
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.