NBA games

OKC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
117–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC33352425117
UTAH28333528124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home UTAH
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 28 4 7
Jalen Williams S 35 26 5 5
Chet Holmgren S 31 22 8 3
Luguentz Dort S 30 10 1 1
Aaron Wiggins 17 9 4 1
Ousmane Dieng 11 8 2 1
Josh Giddey S 26 8 3 2
Jaylin Williams 13 3 3 3
Cason Wallace 16 3 0 0
Vasilije Micic 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 36 33 11 2
John Collins S 29 22 9 0
Keyonte George 27 16 2 5
Collin Sexton S 26 14 0 4
Jordan Clarkson 27 12 2 2
Kelly Olynyk 16 10 4 7
Kris Dunn S 27 8 3 5
Walker Kessler 21 4 9 1
Luka Samanic 6 3 2 0
Simone Fontecchio S 25 2 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 6-foot layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
8 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
9 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
35%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.7 4.9 8.4
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.8 3.1 6.5
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.1 3.5 5.1
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.1 7.5 3.0
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.5 3.5 4.3
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.1 7.4 3.1
7 John Collins UTAH 15.1 9.0 1.7
8 Josh Giddey OKC 14.3 6.1 4.9
9 Keyonte George UTAH 11.5 2.7 3.4
10 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.5 2.2 3.0
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.3 2.4 1.7
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.9 2.8 1.6
13 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 9.8 4.2 1.7
14 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.2 4.0 3.5
15 Cason Wallace OKC 7.8 2.3 1.5
16 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.2 7.1 1.2
17 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.3 2.9 4.7
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 2.6 0.9
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.2 3.4 1.2
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.2 1.8 1.1
21 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.8 0.9 2.0
22 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.1 1.7 0.9
23 Tre Mann OKC 3.3 1.2 1.5
24 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 2.2 0.9 0.5
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 1.5 1.1 0.3
26 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 1.4 1.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.