NBA games

MIN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
123–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIN333623238123
CHI2225363214129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CHI
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 44 38 12 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 33 5 3
Jaden McDaniels S 40 13 1 3
Rudy Gobert S 44 12 16 1
Naz Reid 20 10 4 2
Mike Conley S 36 9 0 8
Jordan McLaughlin 7 3 1 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 19 3 1 2
Kyle Anderson 16 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 42 33 5 7
DeMar DeRozan S 43 33 3 5
Nikola Vucevic S 43 24 6 2
Andre Drummond S 35 16 16 0
Torrey Craig 22 7 6 1
Ayo Dosunmu 29 6 1 3
Jevon Carter 7 5 0 0
Alex Caruso S 35 3 9 6
Julian Phillips 9 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
14%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
13%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
24%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.5 4.2 6.3
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.3 7.6 3.4
3 Coby White CHI 22.3 5.4 5.6
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.9 5.0 5.3
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.1 11.1 3.8
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.2 3.5 3.4
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.2 11.1 1.8
8 Alex Caruso CHI 11.3 4.4 3.4
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.9 3.4 1.7
10 Naz Reid MIN 10.3 3.9 1.3
11 Mike Conley MIN 10.0 3.2 6.3
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.4 2.7 3.0
13 Andre Drummond CHI 7.3 7.0 0.6
14 Torrey Craig CHI 7.0 3.9 1.0
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.5 2.7 3.5
16 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.0 1.0 0.5
17 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.9 1.6 1.7
18 Jevon Carter CHI 3.8 1.0 0.9
19 Leonard Miller MIN 3.6 2.5 0.5
20 Shake Milton MIN 3.5 1.4 0.9
21 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.5 2.5 0.5
22 Julian Phillips CHI 3.1 1.2 0.5
23 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 2.9 1.2 1.0
24 Terry Taylor CHI 2.9 2.2 0.6
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.2 1.1 0.5
26 Dalen Terry CHI 1.9 1.0 0.7
27 Josh Minott MIN 1.5 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.