NBA games

MEM @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
113–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM24222839113
NY33372726123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home NY
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Vince Williams Jr. S 35 19 3 5
GG Jackson 21 16 5 1
David Roddy 23 15 3 3
Trey Jemison III S 32 12 6 2
Luke Kennard 24 12 3 4
Jacob Gilyard S 24 12 3 4
Santi Aldama S 23 11 4 5
Derrick Rose 12 7 3 2
John Konchar S 26 5 4 5
Tosan Evbuomwan 21 4 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 40 32 5 5
Jalen Brunson S 31 27 3 8
Precious Achiuwa S 40 17 5 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 35 17 9 3
Miles McBride 31 12 3 3
Josh Hart S 37 10 10 4
Malachi Flynn 12 6 1 1
Taj Gibson 13 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
16%
2 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
9%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
4 Precious Achiuwa NY
8%
5 David Roddy MEM
8%
6 Trey Jemison III MEM
7%
7 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
9 John Konchar MEM
6%
10 GG Jackson MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
32%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.8 4.0 7.6
2 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 18.7 6.4 3.8
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY 18.4 4.1 3.7
4 Luke Kennard MEM 13.0 3.2 4.1
5 Santi Aldama MEM 10.5 5.8 2.2
6 David Roddy MEM 10.4 5.4 2.4
7 Josh Hart NY 10.3 9.1 3.5
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.1 11.1 2.5
9 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.0 8.1 1.1
10 GG Jackson MEM 9.6 3.5 1.4
11 Derrick Rose MEM 7.7 1.8 3.7
12 John Konchar MEM 6.9 5.2 2.3
13 Miles McBride NY 6.9 1.5 1.1
14 Jacob Gilyard MEM 6.2 1.4 3.3
15 Evan Fournier NY 5.8 1.4 0.7
16 Matt Hurt MEM 4.7 1.9 0.9
17 Tosan Evbuomwan MEM 4.0 3.7 1.0
18 Trey Jemison III MEM 3.9 4.1 0.8
19 Malachi Flynn NY 3.2 1.2 0.7
20 Taj Gibson NY 2.8 2.7 0.7
21 Jacob Toppin NY 2.7 2.0 0.6
22 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.4 0.7 0.4
23 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.4 0.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.