NBA games

ORL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
95–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL1930262095
MIA26304025121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 34 23 9 7
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 15 6 3
Franz Wagner S 35 13 7 3
Markelle Fultz S 28 13 1 4
Joe Ingles 15 9 1 1
Gary Harris 19 7 1 1
Cole Anthony 14 4 3 0
Moritz Wagner 16 3 3 0
Jonathan Isaac 10 3 3 1
Jalen Suggs S 28 3 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 34 23 8 8
Terry Rozier S 31 18 6 7
Bam Adebayo S 30 14 8 3
Tyler Herro S 26 14 3 4
Josh Richardson 27 13 5 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 23 12 6 2
Caleb Martin S 25 11 3 1
Duncan Robinson 22 9 1 1
Kevin Love 15 7 4 4
Haywood Highsmith 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Caleb Martin · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Caleb Martin makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Terry Rozier assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Markelle Fultz ORL
9%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
8 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
9 Josh Richardson MIA
8%
10 Terry Rozier MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
29%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.5 5.9 6.1
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.9 5.5 4.2
3 Franz Wagner ORL 20.7 4.7 4.5
4 Tyler Herro MIA 18.0 5.1 3.9
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.1 10.4 3.9
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.6 7.3 1.8
7 Terry Rozier MIA 14.1 5.0 5.5
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.9 3.9 2.4
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.5 3.2 2.5
10 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.9 3.9 3.3
11 Caleb Martin MIA 9.9 3.8 2.1
12 Josh Richardson MIA 9.4 3.1 1.6
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.8 2.1 1.7
14 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.6 4.0 1.2
15 Gary Harris ORL 7.1 2.0 1.8
16 Cole Anthony ORL 6.2 2.8 2.7
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.8 3.9 0.7
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.8 2.6 0.9
19 Anthony Black ORL 5.6 2.0 1.2
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.5 1.8 1.1
21 Kevin Love MIA 5.5 3.6 1.3
22 Joe Ingles ORL 4.8 2.3 1.8
23 Chuma Okeke ORL 4.7 2.8 0.7
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.4 6.2 1.2
25 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.4 2.8 1.4
26 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.3 1.2 0.4
27 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.0 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.