NBA games

DAL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
119–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL31343024119
BKN24233030107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home BKN
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 40 36 2 5
Luka Doncic S 43 35 18 9
Tim Hardaway Jr. 25 14 7 3
Josh Green S 33 12 2 3
Maxi Kleber S 30 7 2 3
Jaden Hardy 8 6 2 1
Grant Williams 21 5 3 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 2 7 1
Dwight Powell 18 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 39 28 1 4
Royce O'Neale 32 18 6 2
Cam Thomas S 37 16 8 8
Jalen Wilson 18 10 4 2
Ben Simmons S 20 9 9 7
Nic Claxton S 35 9 11 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 9 1 5
Dennis Smith Jr. 18 6 2 3
Noah Clowney 4 2 1 0
Trendon Watford 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Layup (2 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
20%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
14%
3 Mikal Bridges BKN
13%
4 Josh Green DAL
10%
5 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
10%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
8%
8 Maxi Kleber DAL
8%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
5%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
8%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 34.8 10.6 9.6
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 29.5 6.6 6.0
3 Cam Thomas BKN 24.5 3.9 4.2
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 22.5 4.0 4.4
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 17.5 3.9 2.0
6 Josh Green DAL 14.0 4.4 3.0
7 Nic Claxton BKN 13.1 10.8 2.4
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 11.7 2.5 5.2
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.9 3.8 1.4
10 Grant Williams DAL 9.4 3.7 2.2
11 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 8.5 3.7 3.7
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.2 2.2 1.7
13 Ben Simmons BKN 7.7 8.9 6.8
14 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.9 3.0 1.5
15 Royce O'Neale BKN 6.8 3.5 1.7
16 Keon Johnson BKN 6.1 1.5 1.2
17 Dwight Powell DAL 5.0 5.3 2.1
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.6 2.9 0.9
19 Richaun Holmes DAL 4.5 3.4 0.7
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.5 2.2 0.9
21 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.3 1.8 0.7
22 Brandon Williams DAL 4.3 1.5 1.0
23 Trendon Watford BKN 4.3 1.7 1.0
24 Noah Clowney BKN 3.8 2.7 0.5
25 Seth Curry DAL 2.8 1.0 0.4
26 Harry Giles III BKN 2.6 1.6 0.6
27 Markieff Morris DAL 2.1 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.