NBA games

HOU @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
129–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU39362430129
IND41273826132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home IND
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 33 30 3 1
Dillon Brooks S 31 23 3 4
Alperen Sengun S 36 20 10 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 40 20 9 0
Amen Thompson S 34 13 13 6
Cam Whitmore 21 9 1 1
Aaron Holiday 20 8 2 5
Jeff Green 11 3 2 3
Jae'Sean Tate 14 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 29 4 4
Myles Turner S 29 21 3 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 29 18 2 7
T.J. McConnell 19 17 3 4
Buddy Hield 24 12 3 6
Aaron Nesmith S 33 10 1 1
Jalen Smith 17 9 3 2
Andrew Nembhard S 31 9 2 5
Isaiah Jackson 2 4 0 0
Obi Toppin 16 3 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
18%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
11%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
6 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Jeff Green HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.2 11.0 5.9
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.4 7.5 5.5
3 Jalen Green HOU 22.7 5.7 4.3
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.8 4.4 8.6
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 16.7 6.4 2.8
6 Myles Turner IND 16.3 5.9 1.6
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 14.8 2.9 6.1
8 Cam Whitmore HOU 14.1 4.6 1.1
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.0 6.5 1.6
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.6 3.5 1.7
11 Jalen Smith IND 11.8 6.4 1.3
12 Buddy Hield IND 9.6 3.3 2.5
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.9 2.8 5.4
14 Amen Thompson HOU 8.8 6.0 2.6
15 Obi Toppin IND 8.7 4.0 1.6
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.6 1.6 1.9
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.5 4.3 0.9
18 Jeff Green HOU 4.9 2.5 0.8
19 Jarace Walker IND 4.6 2.2 1.1
20 Ben Sheppard IND 4.3 2.2 1.2
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.1 2.3 1.3
22 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.5 1.6 0.8
23 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 2.3 0.6
24 Nate Hinton HOU 3.5 1.7 0.7
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.1 2.6 0.6
26 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.8 1.4 0.5
27 Kendall Brown IND 2.7 1.4 0.6
28 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.0 1.2 0.3
29 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.