NBA games

TOR @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
100–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR19312129100
NO36313833138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home NO
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick 30 22 4 2
Scottie Barnes S 25 17 5 4
Jakob Poeltl S 28 14 9 1
Chris Boucher 12 11 6 1
Bruce Brown S 26 9 3 3
Immanuel Quickley S 24 8 1 6
Jordan Nwora 24 7 3 5
Garrett Temple 12 5 1 0
Thaddeus Young 15 3 2 0
Gary Trent Jr. S 15 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 30 41 6 9
CJ McCollum S 23 20 6 3
Zion Williamson S 22 16 3 5
Jose Alvarado 25 11 4 4
Trey Murphy III 25 10 6 0
Jonas Valanciunas S 20 10 12 3
Naji Marshall 19 8 1 5
Herbert Jones S 22 7 2 2
Dyson Daniels 21 5 3 4
Larry Nance Jr. 20 4 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes 1-foot layup (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Jonas Valanciunas NO
13%
3 Brandon Ingram NO
12%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
7 CJ McCollum NO
9%
8 Herbert Jones NO
7%
9 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
21%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.5 5.3 5.3
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.7 7.1 6.4
3 Brandon Ingram NO 22.7 6.3 6.7
4 CJ McCollum NO 19.6 4.8 4.4
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.1 3.9 6.4
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 14.5 10.2 2.9
7 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 13.2 2.8 1.6
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 12.6 3.3 4.7
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.6 3.3 2.0
10 Trey Murphy III NO 11.6 3.8 1.7
11 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.5 9.0 2.9
12 Bruce Brown TOR 11.5 5.4 2.7
13 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.3 3.2 1.6
14 Thaddeus Young TOR 7.5 4.6 2.9
15 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.2 4.4 1.6
16 Jordan Nwora TOR 5.9 2.2 1.1
17 Naji Marshall NO 5.7 2.6 1.6
18 Gradey Dick TOR 5.6 2.4 1.6
19 Jose Alvarado NO 5.6 1.4 1.5
20 Dyson Daniels NO 5.2 3.3 2.4
21 Chris Boucher TOR 4.4 2.9 0.5
22 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.7 1.3 0.7
23 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.2 1.7 0.9
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.4 2.0 0.9
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.