NBA games

GS @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
109–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS20233234109
BKN2326212898

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home BKN
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 29 5 3
Jonathan Kuminga S 33 28 10 3
Brandin Podziemski S 38 15 11 3
Gui Santos 18 9 5 0
Draymond Green S 30 8 10 7
Klay Thompson S 30 8 6 3
Moses Moody 15 4 1 0
Lester Quinones 24 3 7 2
Dario Saric 4 3 0 0
Kevon Looney 13 2 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 36 18 5 3
Nic Claxton S 32 15 5 1
Royce O'Neale 27 15 3 1
Cameron Johnson S 27 13 8 4
Mikal Bridges S 43 13 6 4
Dennis Smith Jr. 31 12 8 5
Spencer Dinwiddie S 39 9 3 5
Lonnie Walker IV 5 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
36%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
11%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
4 Cam Thomas BKN
8%
5 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS
6%
7 Klay Thompson GS
6%
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
6%
9 Draymond Green GS
6%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
41%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
32%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 28.7 4.6 6.1
2 Cam Thomas BKN 24.4 3.6 4.1
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 22.8 6.2 3.0
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 21.7 4.1 4.3
5 Klay Thompson GS 17.2 3.4 3.0
6 Nic Claxton BKN 13.0 11.1 2.4
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.4 3.7 2.7
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.2 6.2 4.2
9 Draymond Green GS 10.4 7.2 6.3
10 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 10.2 2.2 4.6
11 Dario Saric GS 9.0 3.8 3.4
12 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 8.0 1.9 1.7
13 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.4 5.0 0.8
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.8 6.1 1.6
15 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.6 3.1 3.2
16 Royce O'Neale BKN 6.3 3.7 1.8
17 Moses Moody GS 6.2 1.7 0.5
18 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 5.9 4.0 1.5
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.0 4.8 1.2
20 Lester Quinones GS 4.4 2.2 0.7
21 Trendon Watford BKN 4.4 1.8 0.9
22 Cory Joseph GS 3.3 1.3 1.0
23 Gui Santos GS 3.2 1.9 0.6
24 Harry Giles III BKN 2.8 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.