NBA games

LAC @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
149–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC37293647149
ATL28383543144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home ATL
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 36 2 5
James Harden S 39 30 8 10
Paul George S 32 18 3 5
Norman Powell 18 13 0 0
Amir Coffey 26 13 0 2
Russell Westbrook 26 13 5 3
Daniel Theis 20 9 8 2
Terance Mann S 21 9 1 2
Mason Plumlee S 21 8 9 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 19 27 7 3
Trae Young S 36 25 2 12
Dejounte Murray S 34 21 5 7
Onyeka Okongwu S 34 18 5 0
Saddiq Bey S 33 18 5 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 16 3 6
Jalen Johnson S 37 9 7 5
Bruno Fernando 14 7 4 1
Wesley Matthews 6 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes driving dunk (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
16%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
4 Paul George LAC
11%
5 Saddiq Bey ATL
10%
6 Trae Young ATL
10%
7 Terance Mann LAC
9%
8 James Harden LAC
9%
9 Garrison Mathews ATL
8%
10 Norman Powell LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
48%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 26.4 2.9 11.1
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.8 7.5 4.6
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.7 6.6 6.3
4 Paul George LAC 21.2 5.0 3.5
5 James Harden LAC 20.0 5.8 8.4
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.9 7.9 3.7
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.6 3.4 3.1
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 14.4 4.8 5.7
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.0 3.5 1.8
10 Norman Powell LAC 13.6 3.8 1.7
11 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.4 5.7 1.9
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.8 7.1 1.4
13 Terance Mann LAC 9.7 3.3 1.6
14 Amir Coffey LAC 8.6 2.7 1.0
15 Mason Plumlee LAC 7.9 7.1 1.3
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.3 4.2 1.6
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.4 1.6 0.8
18 Patty Mills ATL 4.2 1.4 0.9
19 Brandon Boston LAC 3.7 1.4 0.6
20 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 2.2 0.9
21 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.1 1.6 0.6
22 Bones Hyland LAC 2.6 0.7 0.7
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.5 2.1 0.4
24 Trent Forrest ATL 2.5 1.1 1.6
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.1 1.1 0.6
26 AJ Griffin ATL 1.8 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.