NBA games

DAL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
118–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26272441118
PHI33241728102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home PHI
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 35 23 5 8
Josh Green S 32 20 6 4
Luka Doncic S 36 19 8 3
Jaden Hardy 15 17 1 0
Maxi Kleber S 28 14 4 5
Grant Williams 28 14 7 2
A.J. Lawson 5 6 0 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 15 5 2 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 3 0 1 0
Brandon Williams 3 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 32 19 6 0
Tobias Harris S 35 17 6 6
Tyrese Maxey S 33 15 2 7
Marcus Morris Sr. 24 10 5 0
Jaden Springer 21 8 5 4
Ricky Council IV 6 7 0 0
Patrick Beverley 21 7 3 2
KJ Martin 6 5 1 0
Mo Bamba 18 5 10 0
Danuel House Jr. S 12 4 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
5 Josh Green DAL
7%
6 Richaun Holmes DAL
7%
7 Paul Reed PHI
7%
8 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI
7%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
10 Danuel House Jr. PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.3 9.0 7.3
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.3 6.6 6.1
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.4 3.7 6.3
4 Tobias Harris PHI 22.5 5.7 3.9
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 20.8 4.0 2.2
6 Josh Green DAL 14.5 4.2 3.2
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.2 4.9 1.6
8 Patrick Beverley PHI 11.0 4.2 5.5
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.9 3.7 1.6
10 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 8.9 3.6 1.2
11 Grant Williams DAL 8.4 3.3 2.4
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.3 2.3 2.0
13 Paul Reed PHI 7.5 6.1 1.2
14 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.8 2.9 1.7
15 Danuel House Jr. PHI 6.8 2.6 1.3
16 Dwight Powell DAL 5.5 5.5 2.6
17 KJ Martin PHI 5.4 2.1 1.1
18 Jaden Springer PHI 5.4 2.2 1.2
19 Mo Bamba PHI 5.2 5.0 0.8
20 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 5.1 1.6 1.4
21 Terquavion Smith PHI 5.0 1.0 1.1
22 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.0 1.7 0.6
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.9 2.7 0.9
24 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.8 2.8 0.5
25 Brandon Williams DAL 3.6 1.1 0.9
26 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.4 1.5 0.6
27 Seth Curry DAL 3.2 1.1 0.6
28 Markieff Morris DAL 2.6 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.