NBA games

SAC @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
110–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC34253318110
CLE39353230136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home CLE
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 30 22 1 0
De'Aaron Fox S 35 19 4 1
Malik Monk 24 18 4 1
Domantas Sabonis S 34 12 19 15
Kevin Huerter S 31 10 3 4
Keegan Murray S 30 10 1 2
Trey Lyles 19 7 4 1
Chris Duarte 3 5 1 0
Kessler Edwards 9 5 0 0
Davion Mitchell 9 2 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 29 2 5
Max Strus S 26 22 5 2
Jarrett Allen S 30 19 7 3
Caris LeVert 24 17 6 7
Evan Mobley S 28 11 14 7
Darius Garland S 28 11 2 5
Isaac Okoro 25 10 0 0
Sam Merrill 11 9 0 2
Dean Wade 15 6 5 2
Georges Niang 15 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
16%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.0 5.4 8.8
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.5 3.9 4.5
3 Darius Garland CLE 22.0 3.3 6.4
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.4 13.9 8.8
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.1 11.9 2.9
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.8 9.7 2.7
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 16.1 3.5 1.8
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 15.7 4.5 3.4
9 Caris LeVert CLE 14.7 3.6 4.4
10 Malik Monk SAC 13.5 3.5 5.0
11 Keegan Murray SAC 13.0 4.8 1.6
12 Max Strus CLE 10.9 5.1 3.4
13 Georges Niang CLE 10.5 3.6 1.8
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.3 3.0 1.7
15 Sam Merrill CLE 9.6 2.5 2.2
16 Dean Wade CLE 7.1 3.8 1.2
17 Trey Lyles SAC 6.4 3.3 1.3
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.4 2.2 1.9
19 JaVale McGee SAC 4.2 3.0 0.5
20 Davion Mitchell SAC 4.0 1.6 1.1
21 Damian Jones CLE 3.8 2.3 0.7
22 Chris Duarte SAC 3.3 1.4 0.9
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.2 1.3 0.5
24 Keon Ellis SAC 2.1 0.8 0.6
25 Alex Len SAC 1.7 2.6 0.8
26 Colby Jones SAC 1.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.