NBA games

LAL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
124–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL37372624124
CHA29292832118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home CHA
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 40 28 4 6
Anthony Davis S 37 26 15 11
LeBron James S 40 26 4 7
Christian Wood 10 11 6 0
Austin Reaves S 36 9 4 11
Rui Hachimura S 29 9 5 0
Taurean Prince 19 9 4 1
Max Christie 18 6 3 0
Jaxson Hayes 11 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 40 41 0 4
Brandon Miller S 33 33 4 3
P.J. Washington 34 15 8 4
Bryce McGowens 24 10 4 1
Ish Smith S 34 8 2 6
Nick Smith Jr. 20 5 2 4
Nick Richards S 32 4 9 1
Leaky Black S 16 2 5 2
JT Thor 7 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
13%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
6 Nick Richards CHA
10%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
8 Bryce McGowens CHA
7%
9 Ish Smith CHA
7%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
39%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.9 7.8 8.4
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.9 12.3 5.6
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.3 8.1 4.0
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 23.2 3.2 6.7
5 Brandon Miller CHA 22.7 4.8 3.2
6 Austin Reaves LAL 19.6 3.4 5.9
7 P.J. Washington CHA 18.2 5.2 2.5
8 Nick Richards CHA 12.8 9.8 1.4
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.1 3.8 1.6
10 Taurean Prince LAL 10.0 3.3 1.8
11 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.2 1.6 1.3
12 Max Christie LAL 5.5 2.1 1.0
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.0 2.8 0.9
14 Christian Wood LAL 4.9 3.5 1.2
15 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.9 1.7 0.9
16 Ish Smith CHA 4.5 2.3 3.8
17 JT Thor CHA 3.9 2.7 0.8
18 Skylar Mays LAL 3.8 1.5 1.1
19 Leaky Black CHA 3.7 2.0 0.9
20 James Bouknight CHA 3.7 1.2 0.8
21 Nate Mensah CHA 2.7 2.5 0.7
22 Frank Ntilikina CHA 2.7 1.4 1.2
23 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.2 1.0 0.7
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.1 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.