NBA games

POR @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
103–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR37262119103
DEN25352626112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DEN
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 39 27 9 4
Anfernee Simons S 39 26 6 9
Scoot Henderson 33 14 8 9
Toumani Camara 23 10 6 0
Duop Reath 13 8 1 1
Kris Murray S 20 8 2 2
Matisse Thybulle S 34 6 1 3
Jabari Walker S 30 4 7 0
Justin Minaya 10 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 34 29 8 7
Jamal Murray S 34 21 5 10
Aaron Gordon S 30 12 7 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 24 12 5 3
Peyton Watson 30 12 6 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 11 3 0
Reggie Jackson 21 7 4 1
DeAndre Jordan 8 4 1 0
Christian Braun 28 4 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anfernee Simons · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Anfernee Simons makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
5 Jerami Grant POR
10%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Jabari Walker POR
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
34%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.5 13.1 9.6
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.3 4.5 7.1
3 Anfernee Simons POR 24.2 3.9 5.9
4 Jerami Grant POR 20.8 4.4 2.9
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.4 5.9 1.7
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.6 7.1 3.3
7 Deandre Ayton POR 13.7 8.5 1.6
8 Scoot Henderson POR 13.0 2.7 3.2
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.9 3.1 1.7
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.4 2.1 2.7
11 Jabari Walker POR 9.2 7.5 1.2
12 Duop Reath POR 8.0 3.4 1.5
13 Peyton Watson DEN 7.0 3.6 1.4
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.3 2.0 1.4
15 Toumani Camara POR 5.6 3.5 1.1
16 Kris Murray POR 4.8 2.0 0.9
17 Christian Braun DEN 4.6 3.1 0.9
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 3.6 0.6
19 Justin Holiday DEN 3.4 1.4 0.9
20 Justin Minaya POR 3.2 1.5 0.6
21 Ibou Badji POR 3.2 3.4 0.7
22 Rayan Rupert POR 3.0 1.5 0.7
23 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.0 1.2 0.8
24 Jay Huff DEN 2.9 1.5 0.6
25 Moses Brown POR 2.7 4.4 0.5
26 Braxton Key DEN 2.7 1.4 0.7
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.1 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.