NBA games

MIL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
108–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL26373213108
UTAH32213040123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home UTAH
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 40 33 7 13
Bobby Portis S 36 27 7 0
Malik Beasley S 30 16 3 2
Damian Lillard S 38 12 0 6
AJ Green 22 10 5 0
Jae Crowder S 40 6 2 3
Cameron Payne 10 3 3 2
Pat Connaughton 18 1 4 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 1 0 0 0
Robin Lopez 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 36 21 3 2
Keyonte George 25 19 10 2
Collin Sexton S 25 19 1 3
John Collins S 24 15 10 2
Walker Kessler 27 13 8 3
Jordan Clarkson 26 12 5 5
Simone Fontecchio S 24 11 4 1
Kelly Olynyk 21 8 7 6
Ochai Agbaji 10 3 1 1
Kris Dunn S 22 2 3 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"John Collins makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
17%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
13%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
5 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
6 Malik Beasley MIL
11%
7 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
8%
8 Robin Lopez MIL
8%
9 Kris Dunn UTAH
7%
10 Jae Crowder MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
33%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.2 9.7 8.8
2 Damian Lillard MIL 27.0 3.6 7.4
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 24.1 3.5 6.9
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.9 8.2 3.3
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.7 3.5 4.2
6 John Collins UTAH 15.7 9.1 1.7
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.4 6.3 1.5
8 Keyonte George UTAH 12.1 2.4 3.5
9 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 12.0 2.4 3.3
10 Malik Beasley MIL 10.1 3.3 1.8
11 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.0 4.3 2.0
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 7.9 4.0 3.4
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 6.9 7.0 1.0
14 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.8 2.9 4.6
15 Jae Crowder MIL 6.4 2.4 1.2
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.2 2.1 1.3
17 Cameron Payne MIL 5.9 1.7 1.8
18 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.7 1.6 1.0
19 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 4.7 2.7 1.0
20 AJ Green MIL 4.4 1.5 0.8
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.2 2.7 1.0
22 Robin Lopez MIL 3.0 1.7 0.7
23 Marques Bolden MIL 3.0 2.8 0.8
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 1.9 1.4 0.4
25 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 1.9 2.1 0.4
26 Chris Livingston MIL 1.8 1.3 0.5
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.