NBA games

TOR @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
127–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
TOR3330242389127
OKC23243429817135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home OKC
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 43 23 7 4
Jakob Poeltl S 33 19 12 3
Scottie Barnes S 48 19 7 9
Dennis Schroder 36 19 8 4
Immanuel Quickley S 43 17 3 11
Gary Trent Jr. S 40 16 6 0
Thaddeus Young 19 6 5 4
Gradey Dick 10 6 0 1
Bruce Brown 18 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 41 24 6 6
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 48 23 9 14
Chet Holmgren S 41 22 5 4
Luguentz Dort S 41 22 7 4
Aaron Wiggins 33 20 6 2
Cason Wallace S 18 8 1 2
Kenrich Williams 26 5 4 1
Jaylin Williams 14 3 5 2
Lindy Waters III 5 3 0 0
Vasilije Micic 14 3 1 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gary Trent Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
4 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
6 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
8%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
9 Bruce Brown TOR
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
34%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.4 5.6 7.4
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.1 6.8 3.8
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.8 7.2 5.8
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.1 3.9 6.2
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.8 8.5 2.9
6 Bruce Brown TOR 13.2 6.2 3.0
7 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 12.3 2.6 1.6
8 Josh Giddey OKC 11.7 6.7 4.3
9 Dennis Schroder TOR 11.5 2.7 4.6
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.4 8.7 2.6
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 3.6 1.4
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.3 2.9 1.7
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.4 3.2 1.5
14 Thaddeus Young TOR 7.3 4.2 2.5
15 Jordan Nwora TOR 6.2 2.3 1.1
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.9 3.6 0.8
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.3 3.7 1.0
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.3 2.1 1.1
19 Vasilije Micic OKC 5.2 1.6 1.9
20 Gradey Dick TOR 5.1 2.3 1.4
21 Chris Boucher TOR 4.3 2.9 0.5
22 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.1 1.5 0.7
23 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.1 2.0 0.8
24 Keyontae Johnson OKC 3.6 1.6 0.8
25 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.3 2.9 0.6
26 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.1 1.7 0.8
27 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 2.9 1.4 0.7
28 Davis Bertans OKC 2.9 1.0 0.7
29 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.