NBA games

HOU @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
90–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2321202690
MIN31173231111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIN
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 31 15 10 1
Cam Whitmore 19 14 2 1
Fred VanVleet S 32 11 3 1
Amen Thompson 20 8 7 2
Jalen Green S 30 8 2 7
Dillon Brooks S 28 7 2 3
Aaron Holiday 16 5 2 2
Nate Hinton 4 5 1 2
Jermaine Samuels Jr. 4 4 1 0
Jeff Green 16 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 34 32 6 1
Rudy Gobert S 31 17 13 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 14 10 0
Naz Reid 22 13 6 0
Mike Conley S 25 8 3 9
Kyle Anderson 17 6 2 4
Jaden McDaniels S 29 5 4 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 5 7 1
Luka Garza 4 5 0 0
Jordan McLaughlin 17 4 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Mike Conley MIN
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
46%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.3 4.2 6.5
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 25.2 7.8 3.7
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.9 10.5 6.3
4 Jalen Green HOU 22.9 5.9 3.9
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 16.2 11.7 1.7
6 Cam Whitmore HOU 13.6 5.1 1.1
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.5 3.8 1.4
8 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.4 3.6 6.7
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.8 6.8 1.6
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.4 3.7 1.7
11 Mike Conley MIN 10.5 3.2 6.1
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.0 2.6 2.9
13 Naz Reid MIN 9.7 4.1 1.4
14 Amen Thompson HOU 8.5 5.7 2.4
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.6 3.2 4.1
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.5 1.6 1.6
17 Jeff Green HOU 5.1 2.5 0.8
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.8 2.0 1.1
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.8 1.8 1.6
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.7 1.4 0.8
21 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.3 2.7 0.6
22 Nate Hinton HOU 3.2 1.7 0.6
23 Shake Milton MIN 3.1 1.3 0.9
24 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.7 1.4 0.5
25 Luka Garza MIN 2.6 1.2 0.5
26 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 2.5 1.2 0.9
27 Jock Landale HOU 2.1 2.0 0.3
28 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.9 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.