NBA games

LAC @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
103–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC19242634103
MIA2221242895

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIA
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 35 25 11 4
James Harden S 42 21 8 11
Norman Powell 28 16 1 1
Paul George S 33 15 7 4
Terance Mann S 20 7 5 1
Amir Coffey 23 5 3 0
Russell Westbrook 15 5 1 2
Mason Plumlee 26 5 9 0
Ivica Zubac S 18 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 36 21 4 3
Terry Rozier S 38 17 7 5
Bam Adebayo S 35 14 13 3
Josh Richardson S 33 14 3 4
Caleb Martin 31 11 4 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 7 4 4
Kevin Love 15 6 7 3
Haywood Highsmith S 27 5 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Layup (2 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Terry Rozier MIA
10%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
5 James Harden LAC
9%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
7 Paul George LAC
9%
8 Mason Plumlee LAC
8%
9 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
10 Terance Mann LAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
36%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.9 7.1 4.6
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.5 5.8 4.4
3 Paul George LAC 22.0 5.1 3.6
4 Tyler Herro MIA 18.8 5.1 4.1
5 James Harden LAC 17.6 5.0 8.5
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.4 11.1 4.1
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 15.4 4.7 5.7
8 Terry Rozier MIA 15.0 4.5 5.7
9 Norman Powell LAC 13.1 4.1 1.5
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.8 4.0 3.0
11 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.4 9.9 1.6
12 Caleb Martin MIA 10.3 4.0 2.0
13 Terance Mann LAC 9.6 3.2 1.6
14 Josh Richardson MIA 9.1 3.2 1.5
15 Amir Coffey LAC 8.8 2.6 1.2
16 Mason Plumlee LAC 6.9 6.4 1.4
17 Daniel Theis LAC 6.6 4.3 1.6
18 Kevin Love MIA 6.5 3.9 1.5
19 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.6 2.6 0.9
20 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.9 3.3 1.5
21 Brandon Boston LAC 4.2 1.6 0.6
22 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.4 2.1 0.9
23 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.1 1.6 0.6
24 Bones Hyland LAC 2.8 0.8 0.9
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.5 1.4 0.6
26 Cole Swider MIA 2.4 0.7 0.4
27 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.