NBA games

IND @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
115–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND26293624115
CHA1331322399

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CHA
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 25 8 9
Aaron Nesmith S 34 22 8 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 20 17 1 4
Myles Turner S 26 16 10 2
Bennedict Mathurin 27 14 5 1
Jalen Smith 20 10 5 0
T.J. McConnell 21 4 6 7
Buddy Hield 12 3 1 0
Isaiah Jackson 2 2 2 1
Kendall Brown 2 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 38 35 6 1
P.J. Washington 32 22 9 2
Miles Bridges S 38 19 6 3
Nick Richards S 33 12 10 2
Bryce McGowens S 16 4 1 1
Ish Smith S 26 3 3 4
JT Thor 10 2 3 1
Nick Smith Jr. 25 2 2 2
Leaky Black 19 0 3 2
Nate Mensah 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Nesmith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
6 Nick Richards CHA
10%
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
8 Isaiah Jackson IND
9%
9 T.J. McConnell IND
8%
10 Bryce McGowens CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 23.4 7.7 3.9
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.8 7.3 5.4
3 Brandon Miller CHA 20.8 4.3 3.2
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.4 4.5 10.5
5 P.J. Washington CHA 16.6 4.8 2.3
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 16.4 2.9 6.5
7 Myles Turner IND 16.2 5.3 1.7
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.7 4.4 2.4
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.0 6.1 2.7
10 Jalen Smith IND 12.1 6.3 1.5
11 Nick Richards CHA 12.0 9.1 1.4
12 Buddy Hield IND 10.5 3.8 3.4
13 Obi Toppin IND 9.5 4.1 1.8
14 T.J. McConnell IND 9.1 2.7 6.2
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.1 1.5 1.3
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.7 4.3 1.0
17 Jarace Walker IND 5.6 2.4 1.2
18 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.6 1.6 1.0
19 Ben Sheppard IND 5.3 2.6 1.4
20 Ish Smith CHA 4.3 2.1 3.1
21 JT Thor CHA 4.1 2.6 0.7
22 James Bouknight CHA 4.0 1.2 0.8
23 Leaky Black CHA 3.9 1.7 0.7
24 Frank Ntilikina CHA 3.1 1.5 1.5
25 Nate Mensah CHA 2.8 2.3 0.6
26 Kendall Brown IND 1.9 0.8 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.