NBA games

MEM @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
91–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM2030261591
BOS29412932131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home BOS
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scotty Pippen Jr. 27 19 6 4
GG Jackson S 36 18 7 1
David Roddy S 33 14 8 1
Jacob Gilyard S 36 13 2 6
Luke Kennard S 25 11 2 2
Matt Hurt 30 7 4 2
Trey Jemison III S 23 6 5 0
Tosan Evbuomwan 29 3 12 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 31 34 8 7
Kristaps Porzingis S 28 26 8 2
Derrick White S 28 15 3 3
Al Horford S 23 11 5 2
Neemias Queta 10 8 8 0
Jrue Holiday S 27 7 3 4
Oshae Brissett 11 6 3 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 7 6 2 3
Payton Pritchard 15 6 2 3
Lamar Stevens 7 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
18%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
13%
3 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
13%
4 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
5 Derrick White BOS
10%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
7 John Konchar MEM
9%
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
9%
9 Jacob Gilyard MEM
8%
10 Luke Kennard MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
42%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.7 8.8 5.1
2 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 18.9 6.8 3.9
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.2 6.2 2.9
4 Jrue Holiday BOS 16.4 4.7 4.8
5 Derrick White BOS 16.3 4.3 3.7
6 Luke Kennard MEM 12.8 3.5 4.2
7 Santi Aldama MEM 10.9 6.2 2.3
8 David Roddy MEM 10.7 5.5 2.4
9 GG Jackson MEM 9.1 3.6 1.4
10 Al Horford BOS 9.0 6.2 2.3
11 Derrick Rose MEM 8.3 2.1 3.8
12 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 8.0 3.1 3.8
13 John Konchar MEM 7.5 5.5 2.4
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.4 2.9 2.4
15 Sam Hauser BOS 6.6 2.7 1.4
16 Jacob Gilyard MEM 6.2 1.7 3.0
17 Matt Hurt MEM 4.5 1.7 0.7
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.5 4.4 0.8
19 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.2 2.6 0.9
20 Neemias Queta BOS 3.8 3.6 0.6
21 Trey Jemison III MEM 3.6 4.3 0.8
22 Tosan Evbuomwan MEM 3.6 4.1 0.6
23 Dalano Banton BOS 2.8 1.4 1.1
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.8 0.9 0.4
25 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.1 1.7 0.4
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.4 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.