NBA games

PHX @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
140–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX42373724140
WSH28302826112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home WSH
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 31 43 2 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 25 18 13 8
Kevin Durant S 26 18 4 3
Devin Booker S 26 14 1 6
Bol Bol 15 8 7 0
Yuta Watanabe 8 7 0 0
Eric Gordon 19 7 0 0
Grayson Allen S 27 6 3 4
Drew Eubanks 15 5 3 1
Jordan Goodwin 9 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 25 24 3 1
Eugene Omoruyi 23 16 10 3
Daniel Gafford S 25 15 7 1
Corey Kispert 25 15 2 4
Tyus Jones S 24 14 1 8
Landry Shamet 21 13 2 1
Jordan Poole S 20 4 5 7
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 7 3 1 1
Jules Bernard 7 3 1 3
Johnny Davis 18 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
13%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
13%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
4 Daniel Gafford WSH
12%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
12%
6 Devin Booker PHX
11%
7 Tyus Jones WSH
10%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
9%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
10 Eric Gordon PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
49%
Jumper
21%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.8 4.2 7.0
2 Kevin Durant PHX 27.3 6.7 5.9
3 Bradley Beal PHX 18.9 4.8 6.0
4 Jordan Poole WSH 16.0 2.5 3.1
5 Deni Avdija WSH 14.8 6.1 3.8
6 Grayson Allen PHX 13.9 4.1 3.3
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.1 10.6 4.3
8 Daniel Gafford WSH 12.1 8.9 1.7
9 Tyus Jones WSH 11.9 3.2 8.8
10 Eric Gordon PHX 11.3 3.1 2.2
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.7 2.8 1.7
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.8 3.5 1.8
13 Landry Shamet WSH 7.9 1.8 1.2
14 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.0 4.4 1.1
15 Josh Okogie PHX 5.3 3.5 1.1
16 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.1 2.5 1.1
17 Delon Wright WSH 4.8 1.8 1.7
18 Bol Bol PHX 3.4 2.0 0.6
19 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.4 2.3 0.7
20 Nassir Little PHX 3.3 1.5 0.6
21 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.2 2.7 0.7
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.2 1.1 0.5
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 1.5 0.7
24 Jordan Goodwin PHX 2.7 1.3 0.7
25 Yuta Watanabe PHX 2.4 1.2 0.6
26 Johnny Davis WSH 2.4 1.2 0.6
27 Jules Bernard WSH 2.1 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.