NBA games

ORL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
111–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL24262833111
DET2918282499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DET
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 36 38 3 2
Paolo Banchero S 35 20 6 7
Moritz Wagner 20 10 5 4
Gary Harris 24 10 1 1
Jalen Suggs S 28 9 5 2
Markelle Fultz S 23 8 4 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 7 4 2
Jonathan Isaac 21 5 6 0
Joe Ingles 15 3 2 2
Cole Anthony 11 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 32 18 5 7
Jaden Ivey S 35 18 3 3
Ausar Thompson 27 17 7 1
Jalen Duren S 27 15 5 2
Bojan Bogdanovic S 33 11 5 2
Alec Burks 20 10 3 1
Marcus Sasser 10 6 0 4
Monte Morris 9 2 4 0
Danilo Gallinari 16 2 2 1
Mike Muscala 14 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 19-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
11%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
6 Markelle Fultz ORL
8%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
9 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
7%
10 Killian Hayes DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
24%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.4 5.9 5.7
2 Cade Cunningham DET 24.2 4.6 8.4
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.0 3.3 2.9
4 Jaden Ivey DET 20.2 4.8 4.9
5 Franz Wagner ORL 20.0 4.9 5.1
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 16.2 7.0 1.7
7 Alec Burks DET 14.3 3.2 2.3
8 Jalen Duren DET 13.8 10.8 2.6
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.9 3.1 2.6
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.0 4.1 1.3
11 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.9 3.7 3.4
12 Marcus Sasser DET 8.6 1.8 3.4
13 Ausar Thompson DET 8.3 5.7 1.2
14 Cole Anthony ORL 8.1 3.1 3.3
15 Danilo Gallinari DET 7.1 2.0 1.1
16 Gary Harris ORL 7.0 2.0 1.8
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.6 1.9 1.2
18 Anthony Black ORL 6.3 2.3 1.5
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.1 3.8 0.7
20 Kevin Knox II DET 6.1 2.8 1.1
21 Killian Hayes DET 5.6 2.4 4.9
22 Joe Ingles ORL 5.5 2.2 2.0
23 Chuma Okeke ORL 5.3 2.8 0.7
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.2 6.3 1.3
25 Monte Morris DET 5.2 1.6 1.3
26 James Wiseman DET 4.8 3.7 0.6
27 Mike Muscala DET 3.4 2.6 0.6
28 Joe Harris DET 1.8 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.