NBA games

CLE @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
117–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE30372525117
SA25202630101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home SA
88% 12%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 31 8 7
Evan Mobley S 24 28 10 3
Jarrett Allen S 31 26 16 0
Caris LeVert 25 10 5 6
Isaac Okoro 25 7 1 2
Max Strus S 29 6 3 3
Darius Garland S 23 4 3 4
Sam Merrill 14 3 1 3
Georges Niang 18 2 2 2
Dean Wade 14 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 34 22 6 3
Victor Wembanyama S 27 19 14 3
Keldon Johnson 22 17 5 0
Zach Collins 20 10 9 1
Doug McDermott 20 8 0 3
Julian Champagnie S 23 8 5 1
Tre Jones S 28 7 5 8
Cedi Osman 16 7 1 0
Jeremy Sochan S 29 2 9 2
Malaki Branham 10 1 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes two point shot (Max Strus assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Darius Garland CLE
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
10%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
8 Tre Jones SA
7%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
18%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 31.5 5.8 8.6
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.3 10.9 4.0
3 Darius Garland CLE 23.4 3.3 6.4
4 Devin Vassell SA 22.9 4.3 5.1
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.4 11.9 2.9
6 Evan Mobley CLE 15.2 10.4 2.5
7 Caris LeVert CLE 14.7 3.6 5.0
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.3 8.0 3.4
9 Keldon Johnson SA 14.2 5.5 1.9
10 Tre Jones SA 13.0 3.7 7.6
11 Georges Niang CLE 10.8 3.7 1.8
12 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.5 3.1 1.6
13 Max Strus CLE 9.9 4.6 3.3
14 Sam Merrill CLE 9.9 2.9 1.9
15 Zach Collins SA 9.5 4.0 2.6
16 Dean Wade CLE 7.8 3.7 1.2
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.5 3.4 1.3
18 Cedi Osman SA 6.2 2.6 1.5
19 Malaki Branham SA 6.1 1.7 1.5
20 Blake Wesley SA 5.9 1.9 3.1
21 Doug McDermott SA 5.0 1.3 1.1
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.8 2.5 2.1
23 Damian Jones CLE 4.0 2.3 0.7
24 Devonte' Graham SA 2.3 1.0 1.3
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.1 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.