NBA games

MIL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
129–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL20403336129
DAL44212725117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DAL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 40 48 6 10
Damian Lillard S 38 30 3 8
Khris Middleton S 38 13 3 8
Bobby Portis 31 12 10 2
Malik Beasley S 33 9 7 0
Jae Crowder 21 8 2 2
AJ Green 6 5 0 0
Robin Lopez S 4 2 0 0
Pat Connaughton 18 2 3 1
Cameron Payne 10 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 42 40 9 11
Maxi Kleber S 34 21 3 2
Josh Green S 38 20 9 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 38 18 2 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 35 8 4 1
Dwight Powell 19 4 8 2
Jaden Hardy 11 4 2 0
Grant Williams S 23 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Beasley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
4 Malik Beasley MIL
10%
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
9%
6 Richaun Holmes DAL
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
8 Jaden Hardy DAL
7%
9 Josh Green DAL
7%
10 Grant Williams DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
9%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 35.2 9.3 10.8
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.2 11.6 7.6
3 Damian Lillard MIL 26.2 4.2 6.8
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 21.6 4.1 2.4
5 Khris Middleton MIL 19.0 4.3 6.0
6 Josh Green DAL 12.6 3.5 2.7
7 Bobby Portis MIL 11.7 6.3 1.3
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.0 3.4 1.2
9 Malik Beasley MIL 9.7 3.5 1.8
10 Grant Williams DAL 8.6 3.4 2.4
11 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.2 2.4 2.4
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.9 1.9 1.3
13 Jae Crowder MIL 5.8 2.5 1.0
14 Cameron Payne MIL 5.8 1.6 1.7
15 Dwight Powell DAL 5.1 4.8 2.5
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.6 2.4 1.4
17 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.4 1.9 0.9
18 Richaun Holmes DAL 4.2 3.2 0.7
19 Brandon Williams DAL 4.0 1.2 1.0
20 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.6 1.6 0.8
21 Seth Curry DAL 3.5 1.2 0.8
22 AJ Green MIL 3.3 0.9 0.4
23 Marques Bolden MIL 2.7 2.9 0.6
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.5 1.4 0.6
25 Robin Lopez MIL 1.5 0.6 0.3
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.4 0.8 0.4
27 Chris Livingston MIL 1.4 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.