NBA games

LAL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
113–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL27322133113
NY25342719105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home NY
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 40 24 5 5
Austin Reaves S 39 22 6 7
Taurean Prince 33 16 2 2
D'Angelo Russell S 27 16 1 4
Anthony Davis S 36 12 18 5
Jaxson Hayes 13 10 1 3
Rui Hachimura S 19 7 4 1
Max Christie 26 6 1 1
Christian Wood 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 45 36 6 10
Donte DiVincenzo S 40 26 6 4
Josh Hart S 42 12 11 4
Miles McBride 20 10 2 1
Precious Achiuwa S 42 10 8 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 6 15 2
Malachi Flynn 3 3 0 0
Jericho Sims 15 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 14-foot jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
2 LeBron James LAL
9%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY
9%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
8 Precious Achiuwa NY
8%
9 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
8%
10 Jaxson Hayes LAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
37%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.8 4.0 7.7
2 LeBron James LAL 25.1 7.6 8.2
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.1 11.6 4.7
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 22.4 3.2 6.4
5 Austin Reaves LAL 18.4 3.1 5.5
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY 18.2 4.0 3.6
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.2 11.1 2.7
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.7 3.7 1.4
9 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 9.6 5.4 1.9
10 Josh Hart NY 9.6 8.5 3.5
11 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.0 7.8 1.1
12 Taurean Prince LAL 8.8 3.0 1.5
13 Miles McBride NY 7.5 1.6 1.1
14 Evan Fournier NY 5.9 1.4 0.7
15 Christian Wood LAL 5.4 3.8 1.2
16 Max Christie LAL 4.6 1.8 0.9
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.6 2.5 0.6
18 Jericho Sims NY 3.3 3.4 0.7
19 Malachi Flynn NY 3.0 1.1 0.7
20 Taj Gibson NY 2.7 2.7 0.7
21 Jacob Toppin NY 2.6 2.0 0.6
22 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.5 1.2 0.6
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.2 0.9 0.5
24 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.1 1.0 0.6
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.7 0.7 0.3
26 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.7 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.