NBA games

SAC @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
123–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC32392032123
CHI25272934115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home CHI
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 35 41 4 4
Malik Monk 34 22 5 7
Trey Lyles 24 16 5 3
Domantas Sabonis S 39 13 14 10
Harrison Barnes S 35 11 1 0
Kevin Huerter S 21 9 2 2
Keegan Murray S 31 5 6 3
Davion Mitchell 14 4 2 4
JaVale McGee 7 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 36 26 6 4
Nikola Vucevic S 34 24 12 3
DeMar DeRozan S 39 24 7 6
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 18 4 5
Alex Caruso S 37 7 5 6
Torrey Craig 14 5 3 0
Jevon Carter 10 4 0 0
Julian Phillips 13 3 1 0
Andre Drummond 14 2 8 0
Terry Taylor 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 Coby White CHI
14%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
18%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.5 3.8 4.7
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 24.0 5.0 5.7
3 Coby White CHI 22.4 5.2 6.2
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.2 13.6 8.9
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.9 10.4 3.8
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.7 3.4 3.2
7 Kevin Huerter SAC 15.6 4.4 3.5
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 15.3 3.7 1.9
9 Keegan Murray SAC 14.6 5.0 1.7
10 Malik Monk SAC 13.2 3.3 5.3
11 Alex Caruso CHI 10.9 4.1 3.2
12 Torrey Craig CHI 8.1 4.1 1.2
13 Andre Drummond CHI 7.7 7.0 0.8
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.5 3.2 1.2
15 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.4 1.1 0.7
16 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 1.1 1.0
17 Davion Mitchell SAC 4.0 1.5 1.0
18 Chris Duarte SAC 3.8 1.5 1.0
19 JaVale McGee SAC 3.7 2.9 0.5
20 Julian Phillips CHI 3.4 1.3 0.6
21 Terry Taylor CHI 3.2 2.3 0.7
22 Adama Sanogo CHI 2.8 2.1 0.3
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.6 1.5 0.6
24 Keon Ellis SAC 2.6 0.9 0.7
25 Alex Len SAC 2.1 2.7 0.9
26 Colby Jones SAC 1.6 0.9 0.5
27 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 1.5 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.