NBA games

GS @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
134–141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
GS3331253411134
ATL2836253418141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home ATL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 41 60 6 4
Lester Quinones 23 17 5 0
Jonathan Kuminga S 34 16 4 3
Brandin Podziemski 39 15 11 5
Klay Thompson S 36 10 4 2
Draymond Green S 35 7 6 8
Trayce Jackson-Davis 9 5 5 0
Gui Santos 15 2 2 3
Andrew Wiggins S 19 2 4 0
Kevon Looney 15 0 10 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 42 35 0 6
Onyeka Okongwu 36 22 16 0
Jalen Johnson S 43 21 13 8
Dejounte Murray S 41 19 5 7
Clint Capela S 25 17 15 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 38 13 4 4
Garrison Mathews S 16 8 3 0
De'Andre Hunter 16 6 1 0
Patty Mills 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 1-foot two point shot (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
15%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
15%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
4 Clint Capela ATL
12%
5 Klay Thompson GS
11%
6 Stephen Curry GS
10%
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
8 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 De'Andre Hunter ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
35%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 26.8 2.9 9.3
2 Stephen Curry GS 26.3 4.6 6.5
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.4 6.6 5.9
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 23.3 6.2 3.1
5 Klay Thompson GS 19.4 3.4 3.4
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.0 7.4 3.9
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.1 3.2 2.8
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.9 3.9 1.8
9 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.6 4.4 2.5
10 Draymond Green GS 11.7 7.2 6.1
11 Clint Capela ATL 11.1 10.1 0.9
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.9 5.8 4.2
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.0 6.1 1.4
14 Dario Saric GS 9.7 4.0 3.8
15 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.0 5.4 0.9
16 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 4.4 1.3
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.3 1.2 0.7
18 Kobe Bufkin ATL 4.3 1.5 0.9
19 Patty Mills ATL 4.2 1.4 0.9
20 Lester Quinones GS 4.0 2.0 0.8
21 Cory Joseph GS 4.0 1.5 1.4
22 Gui Santos GS 3.4 2.0 0.6
23 Trent Forrest ATL 2.6 1.1 1.6
24 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.3 1.9 0.4
25 AJ Griffin ATL 1.9 0.8 0.4
26 Seth Lundy ATL 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.