NBA games

BKN @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
136–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN38293831136
PHI22293139121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home PHI
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 36 40 3 5
Mikal Bridges S 32 23 3 4
Lonnie Walker IV 30 20 2 3
Cameron Johnson S 33 13 7 3
Nic Claxton S 26 12 15 4
Trendon Watford 9 9 3 1
Royce O'Neale 26 8 4 2
Harry Giles III 8 8 4 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 26 3 3 6
Ben Simmons 14 0 9 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 31 23 3 5
Terquavion Smith 9 17 0 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 25 16 4 0
KJ Martin 21 11 4 4
Jaden Springer 26 11 5 3
Furkan Korkmaz 27 10 4 1
Patrick Beverley 20 9 3 9
Danuel House Jr. S 20 8 3 1
Mo Bamba 16 5 6 0
Ricky Council IV 12 5 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cam Thomas · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Cam Thomas makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Nic Claxton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris PHI
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
5 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
8 Paul Reed PHI
7%
9 Danuel House Jr. PHI
7%
10 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.7 3.7 6.3
2 Cam Thomas BKN 24.7 3.9 3.9
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 24.4 4.4 4.1
4 Tobias Harris PHI 22.3 5.7 3.7
5 Nic Claxton BKN 13.9 11.5 2.5
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.9 4.9 1.6
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 12.3 3.8 2.8
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 10.9 2.2 4.9
9 Patrick Beverley PHI 10.6 4.2 4.6
10 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 8.6 2.0 1.9
11 Ben Simmons BKN 7.7 9.1 6.7
12 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.6 3.2 0.8
13 Paul Reed PHI 7.5 6.2 1.2
14 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 7.4 3.4 3.5
15 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.2 4.1 2.1
16 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 6.9 4.1 1.6
17 Royce O'Neale BKN 6.2 3.8 1.8
18 Danuel House Jr. PHI 6.2 2.6 1.1
19 Jaden Springer PHI 4.9 2.2 1.0
20 Mo Bamba PHI 4.7 4.6 0.8
21 Trendon Watford BKN 4.4 1.7 1.0
22 KJ Martin PHI 4.3 1.9 0.8
23 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 3.8 1.4 1.2
24 Harry Giles III BKN 3.4 2.1 0.8
25 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.1 1.1 0.4
26 Terquavion Smith PHI 2.9 0.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.