NBA games

POR @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
108–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR20352924108
DEN33263328120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DEN
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson 37 30 5 2
Anfernee Simons S 37 29 4 4
Malcolm Brogdon S 36 11 8 6
Duop Reath 21 10 4 1
Toumani Camara S 24 10 2 0
Deandre Ayton S 27 8 3 1
Jabari Walker S 21 7 8 0
Matisse Thybulle 23 3 1 0
Kris Murray 14 0 2 0
Ibou Badji 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 27 22 12
Aaron Gordon S 28 18 4 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 16 1 2
Peyton Watson 22 14 5 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 13 4 1
Jamal Murray S 33 13 9 10
Reggie Jackson 24 13 0 3
DeAndre Jordan 5 2 1 0
Collin Gillespie 1 2 0 0
Christian Braun 8 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:43 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR
8%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
9 Jabari Walker POR
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
27%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.1 12.9 9.3
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.6 4.0 7.0
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.8 3.7 5.5
4 Jerami Grant POR 20.9 4.4 3.0
5 Malcolm Brogdon POR 18.6 4.3 5.9
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.1 6.4 1.7
7 Deandre Ayton POR 15.3 9.9 1.7
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.2 7.0 2.9
9 Scoot Henderson POR 13.4 2.9 3.8
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.6 3.0 1.9
11 Jabari Walker POR 9.8 7.4 1.3
12 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.4 2.3 2.3
13 Duop Reath POR 8.4 3.6 1.6
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.4 3.2 1.4
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.2 2.0 1.5
16 Toumani Camara POR 5.2 3.4 1.2
17 Christian Braun DEN 5.0 3.3 0.8
18 Kris Murray POR 4.3 1.8 0.8
19 Julian Strawther DEN 4.3 1.1 0.9
20 Justin Holiday DEN 3.3 1.4 0.8
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.0 3.3 0.5
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 1.8 0.8
23 Justin Minaya POR 2.2 1.0 0.4
24 Jay Huff DEN 2.2 0.9 0.4
25 Ibou Badji POR 1.9 2.8 0.5
26 Collin Gillespie DEN 1.9 0.4 0.5
27 Braxton Key DEN 1.5 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.