NBA games

NO @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO24343026114
SA33322325113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home SA
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 36 33 8 4
CJ McCollum S 39 21 4 4
Brandon Ingram S 36 19 4 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 27 18 9 4
Trey Murphy III S 27 9 1 0
Jose Alvarado 19 8 2 3
Dyson Daniels 21 2 6 5
Naji Marshall 17 2 3 2
Jordan Hawkins 11 2 0 0
Cody Zeller 8 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 36 28 3 3
Tre Jones S 35 20 7 7
Victor Wembanyama S 28 16 14 7
Jeremy Sochan S 31 15 16 3
Zach Collins 20 9 2 3
Malaki Branham 16 7 2 3
Doug McDermott 12 6 2 0
Julian Champagnie S 30 5 6 3
Blake Wesley 13 4 3 6
Cedi Osman 19 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
12%
2 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
10%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 Tre Jones SA
7%
9 Dyson Daniels NO
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
44%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.9 10.7 3.9
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.4 4.9 5.2
3 Devin Vassell SA 21.4 4.2 5.4
4 Brandon Ingram NO 20.9 6.4 6.2
5 CJ McCollum NO 19.1 4.5 4.7
6 Jeremy Sochan SA 16.4 7.5 3.8
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 14.4 9.3 2.7
8 Tre Jones SA 14.0 3.8 8.2
9 Trey Murphy III NO 11.7 3.8 2.1
10 Matt Ryan NO 9.7 2.6 1.3
11 Zach Collins SA 9.6 4.5 2.5
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.2 3.2 1.5
13 Julian Champagnie SA 7.1 2.9 1.4
14 Dominick Barlow SA 6.6 4.9 1.7
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.3 2.5 1.7
16 Naji Marshall NO 6.1 2.5 1.4
17 Blake Wesley SA 6.1 1.9 3.1
18 Malaki Branham SA 6.0 1.7 1.5
19 Jose Alvarado NO 5.9 1.8 1.5
20 Doug McDermott SA 5.3 1.3 1.2
21 Dyson Daniels NO 5.0 3.2 2.1
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.2 2.2 0.4
23 Devonte' Graham SA 2.9 1.1 1.4
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.7 1.7 0.6
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.2 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.