NBA games

CHA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
106–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA19233034106
OKC39343221126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home OKC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 32 28 4 4
Bryce McGowens S 25 15 3 3
Nick Smith Jr. 21 12 0 0
Leaky Black 18 11 1 2
Miles Bridges S 32 9 5 4
Nick Richards S 31 8 11 1
Cody Martin S 21 7 1 4
P.J. Washington 26 5 6 1
James Bouknight 6 5 0 0
JT Thor 6 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 31 3 9
Chet Holmgren S 23 16 6 3
Cason Wallace S 25 12 2 1
Ousmane Dieng 20 11 2 4
Aaron Wiggins 19 10 2 4
Luguentz Dort S 19 8 2 1
Josh Giddey S 19 8 6 4
Kenrich Williams 10 8 3 0
Jaylin Williams 18 7 8 0
Lindy Waters III 18 6 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
15%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
3 Nick Richards CHA
11%
4 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
8 Bryce McGowens CHA
8%
9 Cody Martin CHA
8%
10 Kenrich Williams OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
41%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.1 5.2 7.2
2 Miles Bridges CHA 22.6 7.9 3.8
3 Brandon Miller CHA 17.9 4.0 2.8
4 P.J. Washington CHA 15.6 4.6 2.2
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.5 8.5 3.0
6 Nick Richards CHA 11.7 8.9 1.3
7 Josh Giddey OKC 11.0 6.4 4.1
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 3.5 1.5
9 Cody Martin CHA 8.8 3.8 3.7
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.3 2.6 1.5
11 Cason Wallace OKC 6.7 2.8 1.4
12 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 3.2 0.8
13 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.2 1.6 1.3
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.1 3.1 1.1
15 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.9 1.4 1.5
16 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.3 1.7 0.8
17 Ish Smith CHA 4.1 2.1 3.3
18 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.9 1.3 0.8
19 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.7 1.5 0.8
20 Frank Ntilikina CHA 3.5 1.7 1.4
21 JT Thor CHA 3.1 2.5 0.4
22 Leaky Black CHA 3.0 1.5 0.6
23 Davis Bertans OKC 3.0 1.1 0.7
24 Nate Mensah CHA 2.9 2.6 0.7
25 James Bouknight CHA 2.8 0.9 0.5
26 Keyontae Johnson OKC 2.6 1.0 0.5
27 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.3 2.3 0.4
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.8 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.