NBA games

ORL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
108–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL26282628108
MIN38212918106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIN
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 23 1 6
Franz Wagner S 35 19 4 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 37 18 12 1
Jalen Suggs S 36 15 6 2
Markelle Fultz S 23 10 3 5
Moritz Wagner 11 8 3 0
Joe Ingles 13 6 0 2
Cole Anthony 12 4 3 2
Jonathan Isaac 20 3 8 0
Gary Harris 18 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rudy Gobert S 39 22 16 2
Anthony Edwards S 35 22 1 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 19 3 1
Jaden McDaniels S 32 10 4 1
Naz Reid 22 9 5 1
Kyle Anderson 16 7 3 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27 7 1 0
Jordan McLaughlin 5 6 0 1
Mike Conley S 28 4 5 9

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Markelle Fultz assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
7 Markelle Fultz ORL
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
7%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
30%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.3 4.8 6.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.9 7.3 4.0
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.8 6.5 5.8
4 Franz Wagner ORL 20.7 5.5 4.3
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.8 6.5 1.7
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.7 10.7 1.6
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.6 3.5 1.8
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.8 4.5 1.5
9 Mike Conley MIN 10.0 2.9 5.6
10 Jalen Suggs ORL 9.6 2.9 2.3
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.2 2.3 2.9
12 Naz Reid MIN 8.9 3.6 1.3
13 Cole Anthony ORL 8.4 3.1 3.1
14 Markelle Fultz ORL 8.1 3.3 3.1
15 Anthony Black ORL 6.2 2.2 1.4
16 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.9 1.8 1.1
17 Joe Ingles ORL 5.6 2.1 2.4
18 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.6 2.8 4.0
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.4 3.1 0.7
20 Chuma Okeke ORL 5.3 2.9 0.8
21 Gary Harris ORL 5.1 1.3 1.4
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.7 6.1 1.1
23 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.4 1.5 1.7
24 Shake Milton MIN 3.4 1.3 0.9
25 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.0 1.2 0.8
26 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 2.9 1.2 0.9
27 Luka Garza MIN 2.9 1.3 0.5
28 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.1 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.