NBA games

GS @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
121–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS24332836121
MEM23242628101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MEM
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 37 29 6 4
Stephen Curry S 32 20 6 6
Klay Thompson S 27 14 2 0
Brandin Podziemski 34 12 7 14
Lester Quinones 19 10 6 1
Andrew Wiggins S 30 9 2 0
Draymond Green S 28 9 12 6
Kevon Looney 11 9 1 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 9 5 2 0
Gui Santos 11 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 27 5 2
David Roddy 27 16 2 4
Jacob Gilyard S 32 16 2 5
Vince Williams Jr. S 31 15 6 4
Derrick Rose 16 12 1 4
Luke Kennard 18 6 2 2
Tosan Evbuomwan 16 3 1 1
John Konchar S 28 3 12 5
Santi Aldama S 21 2 5 2
GG Jackson 16 1 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Draymond Green makes two point shot (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
21%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
10%
3 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
10%
4 Stephen Curry GS
9%
5 Klay Thompson GS
8%
6 John Konchar MEM
7%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Andrew Wiggins GS
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
20%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.9 4.6 6.5
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.4 5.5 4.0
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.4 6.2 2.7
4 Klay Thompson GS 20.1 3.5 3.5
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 16.6 5.9 3.6
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.0 4.3 2.7
7 Draymond Green GS 11.9 6.7 6.1
8 Luke Kennard MEM 11.8 3.3 4.0
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.0 5.5 3.3
10 GG Jackson MEM 10.8 4.0 1.5
11 David Roddy MEM 10.3 5.5 2.3
12 Santi Aldama MEM 10.2 5.8 2.0
13 Derrick Rose MEM 8.1 2.2 3.8
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.0 5.5 1.0
15 John Konchar MEM 7.1 5.4 2.3
16 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.5 1.4 3.1
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.3 4.8 1.2
18 Matt Hurt MEM 4.6 1.5 0.6
19 Cory Joseph GS 4.4 1.7 1.4
20 Lester Quinones GS 3.6 1.5 0.7
21 Trey Jemison III MEM 3.5 4.2 0.9
22 Gui Santos GS 2.1 1.4 0.3
23 Jerome Robinson GS 2.0 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.