NBA games

TOR @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
106–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR23242534106
HOU37293633135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home HOU
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 33 28 7 4
Immanuel Quickley S 30 25 1 6
Gary Trent Jr. S 26 12 4 0
Dennis Schroder 22 8 2 1
Thaddeus Young 25 8 4 1
Jordan Nwora 16 8 1 0
Jakob Poeltl S 20 6 5 1
Bruce Brown S 26 5 5 4
Gradey Dick 24 3 7 0
Jalen McDaniels 14 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Whitmore 21 25 6 1
Alperen Sengun S 29 24 13 8
Amen Thompson 24 19 7 4
Jalen Green S 27 14 4 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 24 11 3 1
Fred VanVleet S 25 10 2 6
Jeff Green 15 8 3 1
Dillon Brooks S 24 6 5 0
Boban Marjanovic 4 6 4 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 10 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gary Trent Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Gary Trent Jr. makes 6-foot two point shot (Bruce Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
9 Thaddeus Young TOR
7%
10 Bruce Brown TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.5 11.2 6.6
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.6 6.0 4.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.0 7.4 6.1
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.4 3.8 6.0
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 15.6 3.9 7.7
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.5 3.7 1.7
7 Cam Whitmore HOU 14.4 5.3 1.3
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.1 7.9 1.9
9 Bruce Brown TOR 13.5 5.9 2.9
10 Dennis Schroder TOR 13.3 2.8 4.8
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 13.0 2.2 1.7
12 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.5 8.1 2.7
13 Amen Thompson HOU 8.7 6.3 2.8
14 Thaddeus Young TOR 7.2 4.3 2.8
15 Jordan Nwora TOR 5.9 2.1 1.3
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.7 1.7 1.8
17 Jeff Green HOU 5.4 2.5 0.9
18 Chris Boucher TOR 4.9 3.1 0.7
19 Gradey Dick TOR 4.4 1.7 1.4
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.2 2.6 1.1
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.5 1.3 0.7
22 Nate Hinton HOU 3.4 1.8 0.8
23 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.2 1.8 0.9
24 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 3.1 1.9 0.7
25 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.0 0.9 0.6
26 Jock Landale HOU 2.9 2.4 0.5
27 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.5 2.3 0.5
28 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.