NBA games

SAC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
133–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC38332834133
IND39252434122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home IND
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 35 26 11 7
De'Aaron Fox S 35 25 3 3
Malik Monk 27 23 5 6
Harrison Barnes S 37 22 4 1
Kevin Huerter S 30 15 5 6
Trey Lyles 16 13 3 0
Keegan Murray S 28 5 1 1
Davion Mitchell 16 4 2 1
Kessler Edwards 15 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 37 31 5 4
Pascal Siakam S 35 22 6 2
Buddy Hield 28 17 4 4
Tyrese Haliburton 22 14 3 1
Isaiah Jackson S 27 10 8 2
T.J. McConnell S 23 9 3 7
Ben Sheppard 16 7 1 0
Obi Toppin 18 6 4 1
Aaron Nesmith S 27 6 4 2
Jarace Walker 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 2-foot two point shot (Kevin Huerter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
17%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
9 Buddy Hield IND
7%
10 Chris Duarte SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
19%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.0 3.8 4.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.9 6.6 5.1
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.2 13.5 8.3
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.8 4.2 5.9
5 Keegan Murray SAC 17.0 5.5 2.0
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 16.5 2.8 6.3
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.4 5.8 2.4
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 14.3 4.4 3.2
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 14.2 3.5 1.7
10 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.7 3.9 2.2
11 Malik Monk SAC 13.4 3.3 4.9
12 Jalen Smith IND 12.1 6.2 1.4
13 Buddy Hield IND 10.2 3.5 3.2
14 Obi Toppin IND 9.2 4.0 1.8
15 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 2.2 5.8
16 Trey Lyles SAC 6.1 3.3 1.2
17 Ben Sheppard IND 5.2 2.8 1.5
18 JaVale McGee SAC 4.3 3.1 0.5
19 Chris Duarte SAC 4.0 1.6 1.0
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.0 3.4 0.6
21 Jarace Walker IND 4.0 1.6 1.1
22 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.9 1.3 1.0
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.1 1.2 0.6
24 Keon Ellis SAC 2.7 0.9 0.7
25 Alex Len SAC 2.3 2.8 0.9
26 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.1 1.1 0.3
27 Colby Jones SAC 1.8 1.0 0.5
28 Kendall Brown IND 1.7 0.7 0.4
29 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.