NBA games

PHX @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
120–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX30333225120
ATL33333429129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home ATL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 35 8 8
Devin Booker S 38 24 6 4
Jusuf Nurkic S 23 14 9 3
Bradley Beal S 40 14 4 10
Grayson Allen S 31 12 2 4
Drew Eubanks 17 6 4 1
Eric Gordon 28 6 3 1
Keita Bates-Diop 10 6 2 0
Josh Okogie 15 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 42 32 1 15
Bogdan Bogdanovic 34 23 4 5
Dejounte Murray S 39 22 8 5
Jalen Johnson S 38 16 7 4
Onyeka Okongwu 27 15 7 0
Clint Capela S 21 11 10 0
Wesley Matthews 13 6 1 0
Saddiq Bey S 16 2 3 0
Patty Mills 10 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes layup (Bradley Beal assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
4 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
5 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
7 Clint Capela ATL
9%
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
9 Kevin Durant PHX
7%
10 Eric Gordon PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
48%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.0 4.1 7.1
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.4 6.2 5.7
3 Trae Young ATL 25.8 3.4 11.6
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.1 6.3 6.2
5 Bradley Beal PHX 18.7 4.7 5.5
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.7 7.5 3.8
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 15.9 3.1 2.5
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.6 6.2 2.0
9 Grayson Allen PHX 12.6 3.8 2.9
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.3 9.9 4.1
11 Eric Gordon PHX 11.2 2.8 2.3
12 Clint Capela ATL 10.9 9.6 0.9
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.6 6.3 1.5
14 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.5 4.3 1.1
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.0 1.4 1.0
16 Josh Okogie PHX 4.9 3.5 1.0
17 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.7 2.3 1.0
18 Patty Mills ATL 3.7 1.1 0.9
19 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.6 2.9 0.7
20 Nassir Little PHX 3.6 1.8 0.6
21 Bol Bol PHX 3.2 2.1 0.5
22 Jordan Goodwin PHX 3.0 1.6 0.7
23 Trent Forrest ATL 2.8 1.2 1.7
24 Yuta Watanabe PHX 2.7 1.5 0.5
25 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.7 2.0 0.4
26 AJ Griffin ATL 2.4 1.0 0.6
27 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.0 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.