NBA games

MIA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
110–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA31253123110
WSH33261528102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home WSH
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 36 24 9 3
Bam Adebayo S 33 20 14 1
Terry Rozier S 30 15 8 5
Tyler Herro S 32 15 4 5
Kevin Love 15 13 10 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 8 4 2
Josh Richardson 25 7 4 2
Haywood Highsmith S 15 4 2 0
Caleb Martin 29 4 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Corey Kispert 31 26 4 2
Jordan Poole S 33 16 4 10
Deni Avdija S 35 15 8 2
Kyle Kuzma S 36 13 4 1
Daniel Gafford S 32 11 14 2
Tyus Jones S 26 6 1 6
Landry Shamet 13 5 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly 25 5 4 3
Delon Wright 6 3 2 1
Johnny Davis 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
5 Terry Rozier MIA
9%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
33%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.7 5.2 4.4
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.5 8.0 5.1
3 Tyler Herro MIA 20.5 5.5 4.2
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.4 11.9 4.9
5 Terry Rozier MIA 17.4 4.4 6.0
6 Jordan Poole WSH 16.2 2.6 2.9
7 Deni Avdija WSH 14.7 7.1 4.2
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.5 4.5 3.2
9 Tyus Jones WSH 12.4 3.6 9.0
10 Daniel Gafford WSH 12.0 8.7 1.7
11 Caleb Martin MIA 10.7 4.1 2.0
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.2 3.9 1.8
13 Josh Richardson MIA 9.7 3.3 1.6
14 Corey Kispert WSH 9.4 2.8 1.6
15 Landry Shamet WSH 7.3 1.8 1.2
16 Kevin Love MIA 7.2 3.7 1.6
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.5 2.9 1.1
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.6 3.5 1.6
19 Delon Wright WSH 5.1 1.9 1.8
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.9 2.1 0.8
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.8 2.5 0.7
22 Anthony Gill WSH 3.4 1.8 0.8
23 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 2.9 1.1 0.4
24 Cole Swider MIA 2.7 0.7 0.5
25 Johnny Davis WSH 2.5 1.2 0.6
26 Jules Bernard WSH 2.5 1.2 0.6
27 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.8 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.