NBA games

LAC @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
136–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC27383635136
DET33263135125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DET
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 32 33 4 3
Russell Westbrook 25 23 3 9
Paul George S 27 18 4 7
Norman Powell 25 15 5 2
Amir Coffey 24 14 4 0
Mason Plumlee S 26 12 9 2
Terance Mann S 24 12 1 0
Daniel Theis 18 5 3 2
James Harden S 34 4 3 6
Brandon Boston 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 34 28 7 3
Bojan Bogdanovic S 30 26 1 3
Marcus Sasser 20 21 1 2
Cade Cunningham S 33 16 3 11
Danilo Gallinari 15 11 1 2
Jalen Duren S 31 11 13 2
Alec Burks 21 6 2 1
Ausar Thompson 26 3 7 1
James Wiseman 2 3 1 0
Kevin Knox II S 18 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Paul George makes 15-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
5 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
10%
6 Paul George LAC
9%
7 James Harden LAC
8%
8 Mason Plumlee LAC
8%
9 Killian Hayes DET
8%
10 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
35%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
24%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.7 6.8 5.0
2 Cade Cunningham DET 24.4 4.5 8.3
3 Paul George LAC 21.8 5.3 3.0
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 20.1 3.3 2.6
5 James Harden LAC 20.0 5.2 8.7
6 Jaden Ivey DET 19.9 4.8 5.5
7 Jalen Duren DET 15.9 11.4 3.0
8 Alec Burks DET 15.2 3.3 2.5
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 13.1 4.4 4.9
10 Norman Powell LAC 12.8 3.9 1.6
11 Terance Mann LAC 9.7 3.1 1.7
12 Amir Coffey LAC 8.7 2.1 1.2
13 Ausar Thompson DET 8.0 5.8 1.2
14 Kevin Knox II DET 7.0 3.1 1.0
15 Marcus Sasser DET 7.0 1.9 3.8
16 Mason Plumlee LAC 6.6 5.5 1.2
17 Daniel Theis LAC 6.5 4.2 1.5
18 Danilo Gallinari DET 6.1 2.0 1.1
19 Killian Hayes DET 6.0 2.6 5.4
20 Monte Morris DET 5.8 2.0 1.6
21 Brandon Boston LAC 4.6 1.6 0.7
22 James Wiseman DET 4.0 3.0 0.4
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 2.1 0.9
24 Bones Hyland LAC 3.4 1.0 1.0
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.7 1.3 0.7
26 Joe Harris DET 2.1 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.