NBA games

CLE @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
108–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE27243027108
MEM27312221101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MEM
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 25 4 7
Caris LeVert 29 16 1 3
Jarrett Allen S 21 14 9 2
Max Strus S 29 11 10 4
Darius Garland S 24 9 2 7
Sam Merrill 18 9 2 1
Damian Jones 15 7 6 1
Dean Wade S 28 6 5 1
Isaac Okoro 21 6 4 0
Georges Niang 22 5 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 25 5 5
Santi Aldama S 38 18 9 3
Vince Williams Jr. S 31 17 6 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 22 10 4 4
GG Jackson 29 10 5 2
John Konchar S 32 8 6 0
Jacob Gilyard 23 6 1 6
Trey Jemison III 14 5 3 0
David Roddy 18 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 28-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
17%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 Darius Garland CLE
9%
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
9%
6 David Roddy MEM
7%
7 Xavier Tillman MEM
7%
8 John Konchar MEM
7%
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
7%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 29.9 5.5 8.6
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.8 5.8 4.0
3 Darius Garland CLE 24.1 3.1 6.6
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.8 12.1 3.2
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 16.1 5.9 3.6
6 Caris LeVert CLE 15.5 3.9 5.0
7 Georges Niang CLE 11.4 3.9 1.9
8 David Roddy MEM 11.1 5.5 2.2
9 Sam Merrill CLE 10.7 3.2 2.1
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.4 3.3 1.6
11 Max Strus CLE 9.9 4.3 3.3
12 GG Jackson MEM 9.6 3.7 1.2
13 Santi Aldama MEM 9.4 5.5 1.8
14 Xavier Tillman MEM 9.3 5.4 2.2
15 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.2 2.7 3.7
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.7 3.6 1.1
17 John Konchar MEM 5.7 4.0 2.0
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.0 2.7 2.0
19 Matt Hurt MEM 4.8 1.5 0.7
20 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.6 1.2 3.1
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.6 3.9 1.2
22 Damian Jones CLE 2.6 1.4 0.4
23 Trey Jemison III MEM 2.0 3.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.