NBA games

PHI @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
127–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI39322234127
UTAH32293231124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home UTAH
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 51 2 1
Tobias Harris S 39 28 5 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 16 4 2
Patrick Beverley 18 8 4 5
Paul Reed S 28 7 10 4
Furkan Korkmaz 13 5 2 2
Danuel House Jr. S 19 5 2 3
Mo Bamba 18 4 9 0
Jaden Springer 19 3 1 2
KJ Martin 5 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 33 28 10 3
Collin Sexton S 25 22 1 6
Jordan Clarkson 34 16 2 10
John Collins S 34 15 9 2
Kelly Olynyk 19 14 3 3
Keyonte George 21 11 3 3
Walker Kessler 14 8 7 2
Simone Fontecchio S 27 7 4 2
Kris Dunn S 16 3 3 4
Ochai Agbaji 17 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point shot (Tobias Harris assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
18%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
3 John Collins UTAH
12%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
7 Danuel House Jr. PHI
8%
8 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
9 Patrick Beverley PHI
7%
10 Kris Dunn UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
37%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 30.2 3.6 6.9
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.9 3.3 6.7
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.3 8.0 3.3
4 Tobias Harris PHI 20.9 5.6 4.0
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.7 3.6 3.8
6 John Collins UTAH 14.5 9.1 1.6
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.0 4.8 1.7
8 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 12.4 2.4 3.4
9 Keyonte George UTAH 12.1 2.4 3.6
10 Patrick Beverley PHI 11.5 4.0 5.5
11 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 9.9 4.2 1.8
12 Paul Reed PHI 7.8 6.1 1.3
13 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 7.7 4.7 3.4
14 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.2 6.8 1.0
15 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.0 3.1 4.4
16 Danuel House Jr. PHI 6.4 2.5 1.2
17 Mo Bamba PHI 5.4 4.5 1.2
18 KJ Martin PHI 5.1 1.8 1.1
19 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 5.0 3.2 0.9
20 Jaden Springer PHI 4.4 1.8 1.0
21 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 4.1 1.3 1.2
22 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.9 1.3 0.7
23 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.9 1.9 0.5
24 Terquavion Smith PHI 3.7 0.8 1.2
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.5 1.6 0.5
26 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.4 2.3 0.5
27 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 2.0 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.