NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
105–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND36222621105
NY26252830109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Smith 24 20 9 0
Pascal Siakam S 35 18 7 5
Aaron Nesmith S 37 17 6 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 22 15 4 5
Obi Toppin 22 12 3 2
Andrew Nembhard 26 10 3 6
Myles Turner S 24 5 4 1
Ben Sheppard 22 5 6 1
Buddy Hield S 28 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 40 5 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 38 20 2 3
Miles McBride 29 16 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 36 12 19 6
Precious Achiuwa S 43 12 16 0
Josh Hart S 38 5 12 3
Jericho Sims 13 2 4 1
Malachi Flynn 7 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Myles Turner IND
11%
3 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
7 Precious Achiuwa NY
9%
8 Buddy Hield IND
9%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
8%
10 Josh Hart NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
75%
Jumper
11%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.5 4.1 7.2
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 6.3 4.6
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.0 4.3 7.5
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 18.2 4.0 3.7
5 Myles Turner IND 15.7 5.6 1.7
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.6 5.6 2.4
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 14.6 2.7 6.0
8 Buddy Hield IND 10.8 3.4 3.1
9 Jalen Smith IND 10.0 5.7 1.2
10 Josh Hart NY 9.8 7.7 3.4
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.1 10.5 2.2
12 Obi Toppin IND 8.6 3.8 1.6
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.3 2.3 5.7
14 Miles McBride NY 7.9 1.9 1.4
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.0 6.1 1.0
16 Evan Fournier NY 5.9 1.4 0.7
17 Ben Sheppard IND 4.4 2.1 1.2
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.6 3.4 0.5
19 Jarace Walker IND 3.5 1.5 1.0
20 Jericho Sims NY 2.9 2.7 0.7
21 Taj Gibson NY 2.7 2.5 0.6
22 Jacob Toppin NY 2.6 1.8 0.5
23 Malachi Flynn NY 2.5 0.9 0.6
24 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 2.1 0.6 0.6
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.0 0.8 0.5
26 Kendall Brown IND 1.4 0.7 0.3
27 James Johnson IND 0.9 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.