NBA games

LAL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
114–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL28322826114
BOS25213227105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home BOS
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 35 32 2 3
D'Angelo Russell S 39 16 8 14
Jaxson Hayes S 34 16 10 2
Rui Hachimura 33 15 8 4
Taurean Prince S 38 11 8 2
Jarred Vanderbilt S 16 10 7 2
Max Christie 23 9 4 2
Christian Wood 19 4 4 1
Jalen Hood-Schifino 1 1 0 0
Skylar Mays 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 23 7 3
Sam Hauser 23 17 3 0
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 17 7 3
Derrick White S 33 9 4 6
Jaylen Brown S 27 8 8 7
Payton Pritchard 21 8 0 1
Jrue Holiday S 29 8 7 7
Neemias Queta 13 7 7 1
Al Horford 24 6 9 1
Dalano Banton 2 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 2-foot dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 D'Angelo Russell LAL
16%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
51%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.0 8.9 5.4
2 D'Angelo Russell LAL 23.0 3.1 6.7
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.9 6.1 4.5
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.6 6.0 3.0
5 Austin Reaves LAL 17.3 3.5 5.3
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.6 4.5 4.2
7 Derrick White BOS 15.0 4.0 3.3
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.2 3.5 1.2
9 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 9.7 4.9 1.7
10 Al Horford BOS 9.5 6.0 2.2
11 Taurean Prince LAL 9.2 3.2 1.5
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.4 2.9 2.6
13 Sam Hauser BOS 6.4 2.9 1.4
14 Christian Wood LAL 5.9 4.4 1.3
15 Max Christie LAL 4.5 1.9 0.9
16 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.4 2.7 1.0
17 Skylar Mays LAL 4.1 1.7 1.2
18 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 3.5 0.6
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.7 2.2 0.6
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.3 1.0 0.5
21 Dylan Windler LAL 3.0 1.2 0.6
22 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.6 1.9 0.4
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.5 1.0 0.5
24 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.5 1.2 0.6
25 Dalano Banton BOS 2.1 1.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.