NBA games

MIL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
116–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL38272625116
POR37302923119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home POR
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 27 8 4
Damian Lillard S 40 25 6 7
Khris Middleton S 34 21 2 8
Brook Lopez S 36 19 4 3
Bobby Portis 22 11 6 0
Malik Beasley S 29 7 6 1
Jae Crowder 19 6 5 2
Pat Connaughton 14 0 1 0
Cameron Payne 8 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 38 24 3 5
Deandre Ayton S 35 20 11 1
Jerami Grant S 38 18 3 4
Scoot Henderson 22 15 0 4
Malcolm Brogdon S 36 14 6 6
Duop Reath 13 10 4 1
Jabari Walker S 16 8 5 2
Matisse Thybulle 19 6 3 1
Toumani Camara 23 4 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malcolm Brogdon · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Malcolm Brogdon makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Jabari Walker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
5 Malcolm Brogdon POR
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Jerami Grant POR
9%
8 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
10 Jabari Walker POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
33%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.4 11.9 8.4
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.0 4.1 6.8
3 Anfernee Simons POR 22.1 3.8 5.8
4 Jerami Grant POR 21.1 4.4 3.1
5 Malcolm Brogdon POR 19.6 4.2 5.7
6 Khris Middleton MIL 17.8 4.4 5.7
7 Brook Lopez MIL 16.5 7.1 2.6
8 Deandre Ayton POR 16.3 10.2 2.2
9 Scoot Henderson POR 13.8 3.1 4.1
10 Bobby Portis MIL 13.0 6.9 1.4
11 Jabari Walker POR 11.4 8.6 1.4
12 Malik Beasley MIL 10.4 3.3 1.7
13 Duop Reath POR 9.1 3.8 1.6
14 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.0 2.9 1.3
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.4 2.0 1.6
16 Jae Crowder MIL 6.3 2.5 1.1
17 Cameron Payne MIL 6.3 1.6 1.7
18 Toumani Camara POR 5.9 3.5 1.3
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.8 1.9 1.5
20 Kris Murray POR 5.1 2.1 1.0
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.7 2.0 1.0
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.2 3.2 0.9
23 Rayan Rupert POR 4.2 2.0 1.0
24 AJ Green MIL 3.5 0.9 0.5
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 0.8 0.5
26 Chris Livingston MIL 1.7 1.2 0.4
27 Robin Lopez MIL 1.7 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.