NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
100–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28232128100
OKC19282632105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 39 16 13 7
Jamal Murray S 39 16 3 4
Reggie Jackson 30 16 4 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 39 15 8 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 36 11 6 3
Christian Braun 16 10 5 0
Peyton Watson S 21 9 4 1
Justin Holiday 11 5 1 0
Zeke Nnaji 9 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 34 7 5
Chet Holmgren S 32 18 13 3
Vasilije Micic 17 12 2 5
Aaron Wiggins 25 12 4 2
Jaylin Williams 18 9 3 2
Josh Giddey S 25 8 9 5
Luguentz Dort S 36 7 7 1
Cason Wallace 20 5 2 1
Lindy Waters III 5 0 1 0
Kenrich Williams S 17 0 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
17%
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
14%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
13%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
11%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
11%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
11%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
0%
10 Justin Holiday DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
40%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.5 4.9 6.9
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.1 4.0 7.1
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.4 6.3 1.5
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.2 6.5 2.6
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.0 7.9 2.8
6 Josh Giddey OKC 10.9 6.1 3.8
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.5 2.8 1.6
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.4 3.1 1.4
9 Reggie Jackson DEN 7.4 2.0 2.2
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.6 2.1 1.2
11 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 2.7 1.3
12 Peyton Watson DEN 6.0 3.2 1.2
13 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 3.1 0.8
14 Christian Braun DEN 4.5 3.4 0.8
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.2 2.8 1.1
16 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.9 1.3 0.7
17 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.9 1.2 1.2
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 4.0 0.6
19 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.3 1.1 0.7
20 Davis Bertans OKC 2.9 1.0 0.6
21 Keyontae Johnson OKC 2.8 1.1 0.7
22 Tre Mann OKC 2.8 1.4 1.3
23 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.5 2.4 0.5
24 Justin Holiday DEN 2.3 0.9 0.6
25 Jay Huff DEN 2.1 1.0 0.4
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.0 1.5 0.4
27 Collin Gillespie DEN 1.6 0.4 0.4
28 Braxton Key DEN 1.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.