NBA games

ORL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
108–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL27303417108
SA3021212698

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home SA
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 25 9 7
Franz Wagner S 33 20 8 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 14 5 2
Cole Anthony 16 11 3 2
Markelle Fultz S 31 11 7 4
Moritz Wagner 16 10 4 1
Jonathan Isaac 18 8 4 0
Jalen Suggs S 33 7 1 5
Anthony Black 17 2 0 1
Joe Ingles 15 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 37 26 4 4
Victor Wembanyama S 30 21 8 3
Jeremy Sochan S 33 18 12 2
Cedi Osman 28 8 2 3
Tre Jones S 35 8 3 8
Dominick Barlow 18 7 5 0
Blake Wesley 12 4 1 1
Malaki Branham 15 4 4 2
Doug McDermott 12 2 1 0
Julian Champagnie S 20 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremy Sochan · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jeremy Sochan makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Vassell SA
11%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
5 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
7 Markelle Fultz ORL
9%
8 Tre Jones SA
8%
9 Jonathan Isaac ORL
8%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.7 10.6 3.9
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.1 6.7 6.1
3 Franz Wagner ORL 22.4 5.0 4.5
4 Devin Vassell SA 19.0 4.2 4.9
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.4 6.5 1.8
6 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.1 6.6 3.4
7 Tre Jones SA 12.8 3.7 7.2
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.8 5.1 1.5
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 9.4 3.2 2.0
10 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.1 3.3 3.4
11 Cole Anthony ORL 8.6 3.5 3.0
12 Julian Champagnie SA 7.1 3.1 1.4
13 Caleb Houstan ORL 7.0 2.2 1.4
14 Anthony Black ORL 6.6 2.6 1.5
15 Dominick Barlow SA 6.5 4.9 1.8
16 Chuma Okeke ORL 6.2 3.3 1.0
17 Joe Ingles ORL 6.1 2.2 2.5
18 Cedi Osman SA 5.9 2.4 1.3
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.8 3.5 0.8
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 6.7 1.5
21 Blake Wesley SA 5.6 1.9 3.1
22 Doug McDermott SA 5.5 1.3 1.1
23 Malaki Branham SA 4.4 1.2 1.1
24 Devonte' Graham SA 2.7 1.1 1.3
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.5 1.8 0.6
26 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.