NBA games

DAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
87–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2127221787
MIN24283138121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIN
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Green S 29 18 2 1
Jaden Hardy S 31 15 2 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 32 14 3 2
Richaun Holmes S 30 11 10 3
Seth Curry 17 9 3 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 20 6 4 0
Brandon Williams 8 5 0 2
Maxi Kleber 18 3 2 0
A.J. Lawson 15 3 2 1
Grant Williams S 25 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 29 9 4
Rudy Gobert S 28 17 6 0
Naz Reid 26 12 8 2
Jaden McDaniels S 24 11 2 4
Mike Conley S 25 10 4 3
Anthony Edwards S 30 9 5 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 23 9 0 3
Luka Garza 5 8 1 0
Kyle Anderson 16 5 3 3
Troy Brown Jr. 6 5 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 13-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
16%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Josh Green DAL
10%
6 Mike Conley MIN
10%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
9%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
9%
9 Grant Williams DAL
9%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
21%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.6 4.6 6.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 25.0 7.3 3.9
3 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 19.7 4.0 2.2
4 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.2 11.1 1.7
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.7 3.6 2.0
6 Josh Green DAL 10.6 3.6 2.5
7 Mike Conley MIN 9.4 2.4 6.1
8 Naz Reid MIN 9.3 3.7 1.4
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.0 2.5 3.2
10 Grant Williams DAL 7.9 3.0 2.1
11 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.7 2.1 2.0
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.7 2.8 3.7
13 Dwight Powell DAL 5.0 4.6 2.1
14 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.0 2.5 1.4
15 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.3 1.6 1.4
16 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.1 1.6 0.8
17 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.5 2.6 0.6
18 Seth Curry DAL 3.3 1.3 0.7
19 Shake Milton MIN 3.3 1.3 1.0
20 Brandon Williams DAL 3.1 0.8 0.5
21 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.1 1.4 0.9
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.0 2.3 0.7
23 Luka Garza MIN 2.2 1.1 0.3
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.0 1.2 0.5
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.