NBA games

NO @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
110–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO33282326110
HOU2529252099

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home HOU
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas S 33 25 14 2
Brandon Ingram S 36 24 10 4
CJ McCollum S 36 19 5 3
Trey Murphy III S 27 13 6 1
Naji Marshall 31 10 7 2
Dyson Daniels S 24 9 2 3
Jose Alvarado 14 7 1 0
Jordan Hawkins 23 3 6 2
Larry Nance Jr. 15 0 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 38 31 4 4
Cam Whitmore 20 17 0 0
Fred VanVleet S 37 16 3 5
Dillon Brooks S 31 13 3 1
Amen Thompson 17 10 6 0
Alperen Sengun S 34 10 10 5
Jae'Sean Tate 7 2 1 2
Aaron Holiday 17 0 1 1
Nate Hinton 1 0 0 0
Jermaine Samuels Jr. 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
20%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 Dillon Brooks HOU
13%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
12%
5 Brandon Ingram NO
12%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
11%
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
8 CJ McCollum NO
7%
9 Cam Whitmore HOU
0%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
28%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.4 10.6 6.4
2 Jalen Green HOU 22.8 6.0 3.8
3 Brandon Ingram NO 20.2 5.7 6.6
4 CJ McCollum NO 19.2 4.8 4.9
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.3 4.2 8.1
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.7 8.4 1.9
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.4 3.5 1.7
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 13.4 8.8 2.7
9 Cam Whitmore HOU 12.1 5.4 1.2
10 Trey Murphy III NO 10.8 3.7 2.0
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.7 2.8 1.6
12 Matt Ryan NO 9.5 2.5 1.3
13 Larry Nance Jr. NO 8.1 4.7 1.7
14 Amen Thompson HOU 7.6 5.5 2.8
15 Naji Marshall NO 5.8 2.2 1.4
16 Jose Alvarado NO 5.6 1.5 1.5
17 Jeff Green HOU 5.5 2.7 0.9
18 Dyson Daniels NO 4.8 3.2 2.1
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.4 1.5
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.0 2.6 1.1
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.2 2.2 0.4
22 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.0 1.0 0.6
23 Jock Landale HOU 2.7 2.3 0.5
24 Nate Hinton HOU 2.6 1.3 0.5
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.4 2.3 0.5
26 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.3 1.4 0.6
27 E.J. Liddell NO 2.2 1.2 0.5
28 Cody Zeller NO 2.2 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.