NBA games

SAC @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
106–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC22332922106
MIA28313125115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIA
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 38 33 5 2
Domantas Sabonis S 38 19 17 13
Kevin Huerter S 39 14 3 4
De'Aaron Fox S 37 13 5 3
Harrison Barnes S 37 9 5 1
Malik Monk 14 6 0 0
Trey Lyles 18 5 4 2
JaVale McGee 6 4 4 0
Davion Mitchell 12 3 1 1
Kessler Edwards 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 35 31 7 6
Josh Richardson 27 24 5 3
Bam Adebayo S 32 16 11 4
Tyler Herro S 31 14 8 8
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25 8 4 1
Kevin Love 14 8 3 3
Caleb Martin 28 7 3 2
Haywood Highsmith S 16 4 2 1
Terry Rozier S 30 3 5 10
Thomas Bryant 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes 26-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
5 Terry Rozier MIA
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Domantas Sabonis SAC
8%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
11%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.9 3.7 4.9
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.7 13.9 9.0
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 21.1 4.9 4.0
4 Tyler Herro MIA 19.7 5.2 4.0
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.3 10.7 5.1
6 Terry Rozier MIA 17.4 4.1 5.3
7 Keegan Murray SAC 16.5 5.5 2.1
8 Malik Monk SAC 14.3 3.6 5.8
9 Kevin Huerter SAC 14.2 4.3 3.1
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.0 3.8 3.2
11 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.8 3.2 1.7
12 Caleb Martin MIA 10.2 3.9 1.9
13 Josh Richardson MIA 8.3 2.7 1.5
14 Kevin Love MIA 7.4 4.5 1.5
15 Trey Lyles SAC 6.3 3.5 1.4
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.3 3.0 1.1
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.5 3.5 1.6
18 JaVale McGee SAC 4.3 3.2 0.6
19 Chris Duarte SAC 4.0 1.6 1.1
20 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.9 1.4 1.1
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.0 2.0 0.5
22 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.7 1.1 0.6
23 Cole Swider MIA 2.7 0.8 0.5
24 Keon Ellis SAC 2.4 0.9 0.7
25 Alex Len SAC 2.0 2.8 0.9
26 Colby Jones SAC 1.4 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.